The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 111% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajovic Dusan | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 30.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 20.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Salby Alexander | LI NING STAR | 9.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Munoz Hodei | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 5.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Oosterlinck Joes | VAN RYSEL ROUBAIX | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Hennequin Paul | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 4.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Barbier Pierre | TERENGGANU CYCLING TEAM | 4.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Walsh Liam | CCACHE X BODYWRAP | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Pita Cristian | ROOJAI INSURANCE WINSPACE | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Scott Cameron | LI NING STAR | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Finkst Tilen | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Shnyrko Aliaksei | LI NING STAR | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Hamdan Wan Abdul Rahman | TERENGGANU CYCLING TEAM | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Wang Gustav | XDS ASTANA DEVELOPMENT TEAM | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Bradac Adam | FACTOR RACING | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajovic Dusan | 30.9% | 36.4% | 26.4% | 57.6% | 85.4% | n/a |
| 2 | Malucelli Matteo | 20.9% | 16.2% | 20.0% | 48.8% | 82.7% | n/a |
| 3 | Salby Alexander | 9.4% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 29.6% | 70.6% | n/a |
| 4 | Munoz Hodei | 5.0% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 22.6% | 72.8% | n/a |
| 5 | Oosterlinck Joes | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 60.7% | n/a |
| 6 | Hennequin Paul | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 19.3% | 72.2% | n/a |
| 7 | Barbier Pierre | 4.2% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 19.4% | 69.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Walsh Liam | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 15.4% | 60.7% | n/a |
| 9 | Pita Cristian | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 51.4% | n/a |
| 10 | Rasch Jesper | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 8.9% | 54.5% | n/a |
| 11 | Scott Cameron | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 7.9% | 55.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Finkst Tilen | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 47.3% | n/a |
| 13 | Shnyrko Aliaksei | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 31.4% | n/a |
| 14 | Syritsa Gleb | 1.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 10.6% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Hamdan Wan Abdul Rahman | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 24.3% | n/a |
| 16 | Wang Gustav | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 20.7% | n/a |
| 17 | Bradac Adam | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 9.5% | 55.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Konychev Alexander | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 37.0% | n/a |
| 19 | Rysbay Dias | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 30.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Phonarjthan Patompob | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 22.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Da Silva Tiano | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 46.1% | n/a |
| 22 | Sydor Serhii | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Verburg Luke | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 29.8% | n/a |
| 24 | Isasa Xabier | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 20.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Räim Mihkel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 27.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Nencini Tommaso | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Lopez Jordi | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 19.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Vahtra Norman | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 32.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Ugarte Gari | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 21.9% | n/a |
| 30 | Yelyubayev Ruslan | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 12.2% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 20.9% |
| 2 | Syritsa Gleb | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 1.3% |
| 3 | Wang Ruidong | LI NING STAR | 0.2% |
| 4 | Giddings Joshua | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 0.2% |
| 5 | Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 2.6% |
| 6 | Scott Cameron | LI NING STAR | 2.1% |
| 7 | Munoz Hodei | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 5.0% |
| 8 | Oosterlinck Joes | VAN RYSEL ROUBAIX | 4.6% |
| 9 | Rajovic Dusan | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 30.9% |
| 10 | Salby Alexander | LI NING STAR | 9.4% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 20.91% | – |