One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals own history 79% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 6.5% | 2.8% | 9.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Tiberi Antonio | Bahrain Victorious | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 3.4% | 2.1% | 4.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.3% | n/a | – | – |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Pellizzari Giulio | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Hirschi Marc | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Lapeira Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Rondel Mathys | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Wellens Tim | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Vendrame Andrea | Team Jayco-AlUla | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Van Gils Maxim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Mas Enric | Movistar Team | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Buitrago Santiago | Bahrain Victorious | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| August AJ | Netcompany INEOS | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pidcock Tom | 6.5% | 2.8% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 45.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Grégoire Romain | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 18.4% | 44.4% | n/a |
| 3 | Tiberi Antonio | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 26.3% | n/a |
| 4 | Martinez Lenny | 3.4% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 25.2% | n/a |
| 5 | Scaroni Cristian | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 9.5% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 6 | McNulty Brandon | 2.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 11.0% | 30.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Pellizzari Giulio | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 8.7% | 35.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 9.0% | 33.8% | n/a |
| 9 | Hirschi Marc | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 7.5% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Lapeira Paul | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 10.7% | 37.0% | n/a |
| 11 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 11.1% | 37.8% | n/a |
| 12 | Rondel Mathys | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 26.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Wellens Tim | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 8.8% | 34.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 34.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Vendrame Andrea | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 9.7% | 44.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Van Gils Maxim | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 9.8% | 35.0% | n/a |
| 17 | Mas Enric | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 16.3% | n/a |
| 18 | Buitrago Santiago | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 16.3% | n/a |
| 19 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 7.0% | 31.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Crescioli Ludovico | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 28.6% | n/a |
| 21 | August AJ | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 6.4% | n/a |
| 22 | Honore Mikkel | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 18.4% | n/a |
| 23 | Tulett Ben | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 8.2% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Arensman Thymen | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 11.0% | n/a |
| 25 | Sheffield Magnus | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 26 | Simmons Quinn | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 5.8% | 25.1% | n/a |
| 27 | Ulissi Diego | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 20.9% | n/a |
| 28 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 21.9% | n/a |
| 29 | Pinarello Alessandro | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 20.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 15.0% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Own history win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.6% |
| 2 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 6.5% |
| 3 | Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% |
| 4 | Simmons Quinn | Lidl-Trek | 0.9% |
| 5 | Hirschi Marc | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 2.2% |
| 6 | Bilbao Pello | Bahrain Victorious | 0.2% |
| 7 | Scaroni Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 3.2% |
| 8 | Crescioli Ludovico | Team Polti VisitMalta | 1.1% |
| 9 | Narvaez Jhonnatan | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.9% |
| 10 | Gualdi Simone | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.2% |
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own history | 0.62% | 0.32% | 0.86% | – |