One day, one result: the production stack priced the whole field under 1 course reading, against the market's line where one was captured. A one-day race is its own best reference — the main reading is built from this race's own recent editions.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model cannot see from a map — it is set from reference races. The main reading averages this race's own last editions, so the terrain and the kind of rider it selects come from the race's own history; any alternate reading swaps in an archetype set to ask what a different day would do to the same field.
The board
Blend is the production price (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer); Cascade and LambdaRank are the two underlying heads shown for the main reading. The market columns are the devigged win line, present as the information benchmark the model is scored against.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals hindsight 66% — while the devigged market column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market odds | Market devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leitao Iuri | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 10.3% | 13.5% | 14.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Gaviria Fernando | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 8.0% | 4.3% | 13.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Colnaghi Luca | BARDIANI CSF 7 SABER | 7.7% | 5.0% | 12.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Oldani Stefano | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Kubis Lukas | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Adrià Roger | MOVISTAR TEAM | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Morgado António | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Darder Sergi | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Grégoire Romain | GROUPAMA-FDJ UNITED | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Barrenetxea Jon | MOVISTAR TEAM | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Kopecky Matyas | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Berasategi Xabier | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.4% | 5.1% | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Tesfazion Natnael | MOVISTAR TEAM | 1.3% | 0.5% | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Magli Filippo | BARDIANI CSF 7 SABER | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leitao Iuri | 10.3% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 31.8% | 63.6% | n/a |
| 2 | Gaviria Fernando | 8.0% | 4.3% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 44.5% | n/a |
| 3 | Colnaghi Luca | 7.7% | 5.0% | 12.3% | 16.7% | 55.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Cavia Daniel | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 15.7% | 51.1% | n/a |
| 5 | Oldani Stefano | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 13.4% | 52.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Kubis Lukas | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 13.1% | 54.2% | n/a |
| 7 | Adrià Roger | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 7.9% | 41.5% | n/a |
| 8 | Morgado António | 1.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 12.2% | 39.4% | n/a |
| 9 | Darder Sergi | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 10.7% | 51.5% | n/a |
| 10 | Grégoire Romain | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 9.8% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 11 | Barrenetxea Jon | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 7.9% | 45.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Kopecky Matyas | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 8.0% | 46.6% | n/a |
| 13 | Berasategi Xabier | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 45.4% | n/a |
| 14 | Cosnefroy Benoît | 1.4% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 16.4% | 47.1% | n/a |
| 15 | Tesfazion Natnael | 1.3% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 16 | Magli Filippo | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 45.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Molenaar Alex | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 5.6% | 34.9% | n/a |
| 18 | Vendrame Andrea | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 8.8% | 45.7% | n/a |
| 19 | Ballerini Davide | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 8.9% | 36.1% | n/a |
| 20 | Martín Gotzon | 0.7% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 34.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Christen Jan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 17.1% | n/a |
| 22 | Boichis Adrien | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 5.0% | 21.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Crescioli Ludovico | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 21.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Loulergue Victor | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 27.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Vlasov Aleksandr | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 11.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Fagundez Eric | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 19.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Delettre Alexandre | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 12.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Bloem Joren | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 25.4% | n/a |
| 29 | Løland Sakarias Koller | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 18.2% | n/a |
| 30 | Velasco Simone | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 13.4% | n/a |
After the race
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Løland Sakarias Koller | UNO-X MOBILITY | 0.3% |
| 2 | Crescioli Ludovico | TEAM POLTI VISITMALTA | 0.6% |
| 3 | Cosnefroy Benoît | UAE TEAM EMIRATES XRG | 1.4% |
| 4 | Tesfazion Natnael | MOVISTAR TEAM | 1.3% |
| 5 | Vendrame Andrea | TEAM JAYCO ALULA | 1.0% |
| 6 | Velasco Simone | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 0.3% |
| 7 | Molenaar Alex | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 1.0% |
| 8 | Oldani Stefano | CAJA RURAL-SEGUROS RGA | 2.9% |
| 9 | Vlasov Aleksandr | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 0.6% |
| 10 | Kubis Lukas | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 2.4% |
1 rider in the top 15 is shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: SEVILLA LOPEZ Diego Pablo.
| Reading | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Market devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.35% | 0.19% | 0.56% | – |
Result rows are joined to the boards by FirstCycling rider id through the riders table. 0 row(s) needed the normalised-name fallback; 1 finisher(s) could not be matched at all.