GC tracker — the favourites, stage by stage

Ordered by the outlook head, the one head that sees the race state: standings, gaps and stages remaining. It scores contenders only (a rider it never priced shows a dash) and its per-rider numbers do not sum to exactly one book, so read a row as "how safe is this position" rather than as a like-for-like price. The pre-race blend is the main heads with live form and the DNF-adjusted active field: it prices the final GC from what happened before the race and never sees the standings, which is why it barely moves from one evening to the next and why a rider who has already lost an hour can still carry his pre-race price there. It sums to 109% over the field, so compare it with the book column directionally only.

The official classification after each stage, from the FirstCycling results archive — place, with the gap to the leader beneath it. Every rider who has held a top-10 place, ordered by the current standing; "out" = no longer classified. Stage 3 was cancelled and never raced: it adds no time to anyone, so it is skipped rather than treated as a missing result, and every later classification still lines up.

The GC outlook head at each checkpoint — every rider who has appeared in its top-10, ordered by the current board. Bold = inside that evening's top-10; "out" = no longer in the race when that opinion was logged. 🟡 names the actual race leader at each checkpoint. Columns are labelled by the stage the road had reached, which is what the state was built from. This head sees the standings, the gaps and the stages remaining, so it is the row that should move when the race does; it scores contenders only, so a rider it never priced shows a dash.

Model GC win probability (blend) at each checkpoint — every rider who has appeared in a top-10, ordered by the current board. Bold = inside that evening's top-10; "out" = no longer in the race when that opinion was logged. 🟡 names the actual race leader at each checkpoint. The row is close to flat by construction — these heads price the final GC from form and the reference editions, and never see the standings — so treat this table as the baseline the race-aware head above is moving against, not as a forecast of the race as it stands.