The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC showdown 90%, Attrition 82%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 88% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC showdown | Mountain break | Attrition | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gall Felix | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 10.4% | – | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.00 | 13.0% | -2.6pp |
| Mas Enric | Movistar Team | 8.0% | – | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.00 | 13.0% | -5.0pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 7.2% | – | 5.9% | 5.0% | 15.00 | 4.3% | +2.9pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | 5.2% | – | 5.3% | 5.4% | 9.00 | 7.2% | -1.8pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 4.6% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +3.3pp |
| Buitrago Santiago | Bahrain Victorious | 2.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 23.00 | 2.8% | +1.2pp |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.7% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +2.8pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +2.8pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.8% | – | 2.5% | 2.9% | 6.00 | 10.8% | -7.9pp |
| Omrzel Jakob | Bahrain Victorious | 1.9% | – | 2.0% | 2.7% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +1.1pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 2.2% | – | 2.1% | 2.5% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +2.1pp |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 2.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +0.6pp |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 6.00 | 10.8% | -8.3pp |
| Vermaerke Kevin | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +2.0pp |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 801.00 | 0.1% | +2.1pp |
| Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | 1.7% | – | 1.8% | 1.6% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.6pp |
| Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.2pp |
| Castrillo Pablo | Movistar Team | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.6pp |
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.5% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.4pp |
| Leknessund Andreas | Uno-X Mobility | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.2pp |
| Berthet Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.3% | – | 1.4% | 1.6% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.3pp |
| Dunbar Edward | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Tuckwell Luke | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.2pp |
| Almeida Joao | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 23.00 | 2.8% | -1.3pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gall Felix | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 31.7% | 82.6% | 5.00 |
| 2 | Mas Enric | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 27.3% | 80.0% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Roglic Primoz | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 23.8% | 71.9% | 15.00 |
| 4 | Onley Oscar | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 14.7% | 74.2% | 9.00 |
| 5 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 16.2% | 47.2% | 51.00 |
| 6 | Bisiaux Léo | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 11.4% | 51.9% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Riccitello Matthew | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 46.9% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 9.1% | 72.3% | 6.00 |
| 9 | Widar Jarno | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 8.8% | 41.9% | 34.00 |
| 10 | Buitrago Santiago | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 32.5% | 23.00 |
| 11 | Kuss Sepp | 2.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 10.5% | 52.6% | 6.00 |
| 12 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 6.2% | 61.8% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Omrzel Jakob | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 6.8% | 61.1% | 41.00 |
| 14 | Debruyne Ramses | 1.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 10.6% | 34.0% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Tejada Harold | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 8.8% | 58.5% | 51.00 |
| 16 | Tuckwell Luke | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 13.2% | 201.00 |
| 17 | van Aert Wout | 1.5% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 10.4% | 17.7% | 201.00 |
| 18 | Romeo Ivan | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 7.2% | 801.00 |
| 19 | Almeida Joao | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 19.4% | 23.00 |
| 20 | Berthet Clément | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 57.7% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Vermaerke Kevin | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 20.4% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 21.4% | 34.00 |
| 23 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 5.8% | 20.6% | 67.00 |
| 24 | Rodriguez Cristian | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 49.9% | 51.00 |
| 25 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 12.9% | 151.00 |
| 26 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 12.8% | 301.00 |
| 27 | Zana Filippo | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 15.2% | 67.00 |
| 28 | Berrade Urko | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 6.6% | 29.9% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Leknessund Andreas | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 4.0% | 15.6% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Brenner Marco | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 9.3% | 34.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bisiaux Léo | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 14.0% | 50.7% | 67.00 |
| 2 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 16.4% | 49.3% | 51.00 |
| 3 | Debruyne Ramses | 3.2% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 16.9% | 44.8% | 101.00 |
| 4 | Riccitello Matthew | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 39.4% | 81.00 |
| 5 | Buitrago Santiago | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 30.2% | 23.00 |
| 6 | van Aert Wout | 2.7% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 13.3% | 23.3% | 201.00 |
| 7 | Widar Jarno | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 9.0% | 42.3% | 34.00 |
| 8 | Kuss Sepp | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 8.5% | 39.1% | 6.00 |
| 9 | Romeo Ivan | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 801.00 |
| 10 | Vermaerke Kevin | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 23.8% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Brenner Marco | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 18.9% | 34.00 |
| 12 | Tuckwell Luke | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 10.8% | 201.00 |
| 13 | Almeida Joao | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 18.8% | 23.00 |
| 14 | Leknessund Andreas | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 6.6% | 21.8% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 21.3% | 34.00 |
| 16 | Zana Filippo | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 16.9% | 67.00 |
| 17 | Pickering Finlay | 1.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 7.1% | 32.6% | 201.00 |
| 18 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 5.8% | 19.9% | 67.00 |
| 19 | Berrade Urko | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 8.9% | 30.3% | 81.00 |
| 20 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 12.5% | 151.00 |
| 21 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 13.8% | 301.00 |
| 22 | Martin Guillaume | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 16.0% | 126.00 |
| 23 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 7.6% | n/a |
| 24 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 11.3% | 501.00 |
| 25 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 5.6% | 401.00 |
| 26 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 10.7% | 101.00 |
| 27 | Kron Andreas | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 10.5% | 501.00 |
| 28 | García Raúl | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 9.5% | 401.00 |
| 29 | Sosa Ivan | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 5.7% | 67.00 |
| 30 | Dunbar Edward | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 11.8% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gall Felix | 8.6% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 25.4% | 78.4% | 5.00 |
| 2 | Mas Enric | 7.3% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 24.8% | 76.7% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Roglic Primoz | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 67.0% | 15.00 |
| 4 | Onley Oscar | 5.3% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 73.5% | 9.00 |
| 5 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 15.4% | 46.2% | 51.00 |
| 6 | Bisiaux Léo | 3.6% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 33.9% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Carapaz Richard | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 8.2% | 69.1% | 6.00 |
| 8 | Riccitello Matthew | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 36.0% | 81.00 |
| 9 | Buitrago Santiago | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 29.9% | 23.00 |
| 10 | Widar Jarno | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 9.5% | 39.9% | 34.00 |
| 11 | Kuss Sepp | 2.2% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 10.5% | 48.8% | 6.00 |
| 12 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 7.5% | 60.2% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Omrzel Jakob | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 68.0% | 41.00 |
| 14 | Tejada Harold | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 9.3% | 55.0% | 51.00 |
| 15 | Debruyne Ramses | 1.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 10.4% | 33.0% | 101.00 |
| 16 | van Aert Wout | 1.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 10.3% | 18.4% | 201.00 |
| 17 | Almeida Joao | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 4.7% | 20.7% | 23.00 |
| 18 | Berthet Clément | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 5.9% | 55.2% | 51.00 |
| 19 | Romeo Ivan | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 801.00 |
| 20 | Tuckwell Luke | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 11.2% | 201.00 |
| 21 | Vermaerke Kevin | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 20.1% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Leknessund Andreas | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 6.2% | 20.4% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 21.5% | 34.00 |
| 24 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 5.9% | 20.9% | 67.00 |
| 25 | Rodriguez Cristian | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 48.0% | 51.00 |
| 26 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 12.7% | 301.00 |
| 27 | Zana Filippo | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 14.8% | 67.00 |
| 28 | Berrade Urko | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 19.5% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 12.2% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Brenner Marco | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 7.7% | 34.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gall Felix | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 21.1% | 75.8% | 5.00 |
| 2 | Mas Enric | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 21.4% | 73.7% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Onley Oscar | 5.4% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 69.7% | 9.00 |
| 4 | Roglic Primoz | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 16.1% | 59.8% | 15.00 |
| 5 | Buitrago Santiago | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 11.3% | 43.1% | 23.00 |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 13.5% | 46.1% | 51.00 |
| 7 | Bisiaux Léo | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 10.6% | 45.6% | 67.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 68.8% | 6.00 |
| 9 | Omrzel Jakob | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 10.8% | 70.8% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 57.9% | 151.00 |
| 11 | Kuss Sepp | 2.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 10.7% | 51.0% | 6.00 |
| 12 | Vermaerke Kevin | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 30.9% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Riccitello Matthew | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 42.3% | 81.00 |
| 14 | Romeo Ivan | 2.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 801.00 |
| 15 | Castrillo Pablo | 1.8% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 7.5% | 401.00 |
| 16 | Widar Jarno | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 12.7% | 42.4% | 34.00 |
| 17 | Leknessund Andreas | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 7.8% | 25.3% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Tejada Harold | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 39.1% | 51.00 |
| 19 | Berthet Clément | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 5.7% | 50.1% | 51.00 |
| 20 | Dunbar Edward | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 16.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Debruyne Ramses | 1.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 10.2% | 37.0% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Almeida Joao | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 5.4% | 20.2% | 23.00 |
| 23 | Brenner Marco | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 9.0% | 22.0% | 34.00 |
| 24 | Martin Guillaume | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 27.5% | 126.00 |
| 25 | van Aert Wout | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 13.0% | 201.00 |
| 26 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 13.1% | 151.00 |
| 27 | Mulubrhan Henok | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 14.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Berrade Urko | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 21.7% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Gloag Thomas | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 9.9% | 81.00 |
| 30 | García Raúl | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 7.8% | 401.00 |
Angle
The top 10 on GC after stage 19 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Mountain break' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 58% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Mountain break win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 4.3% | 7.5% | 67 | 1.0% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 4.0% | 6.8% | 51 | 1.3% |
| Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 3.2% | 5.4% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.0% | 5.1% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Buitrago Santiago | Bahrain Victorious | 2.7% | 4.7% | 23 | 2.8% |
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.7% | 4.6% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 2.4% | 4.2% | 34 | 1.9% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.2% | 3.7% | 6 | 10.8% |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 1.7% | 2.9% | 801 | 0.1% |
| Vermaerke Kevin | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.6% | 2.7% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Brenner Marco | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.5% | 2.5% | 34 | 1.9% |
| Tuckwell Luke | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.4% | 2.5% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Almeida Joao | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.3% | 2.3% | 23 | 2.8% |
| Leknessund Andreas | Uno-X Mobility | 1.3% | 2.3% | 151 | 0.4% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 10 on GC after stage 19), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | GC showdown | Mountain break | Attrition | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mas Enric | 5.00 | 13.0% | 8.0% (#2) | 5.1% (#2) | 7.3% (#2) | GC #1 |
| Gall Felix | 5.00 | 13.0% | 10.4% (#1) | 5.4% (#1) | 8.6% (#1) | GC #3 |
| Kuss Sepp | 6.00 | 10.8% | 2.3% (#11) | 2.2% (#13) | 2.2% (#11) | free |
| Carapaz Richard | 6.00 | 10.8% | 2.8% (#8) | 2.1% (#14) | 2.5% (#7) | GC #4 |
| Onley Oscar | 9.00 | 7.2% | 5.2% (#4) | 3.8% (#6) | 5.3% (#4) | GC #5 |
| Roglic Primoz | 15.00 | 4.3% | 7.2% (#3) | 3.8% (#5) | 5.9% (#3) | GC #2 |
| Almeida Joao | 23.00 | 2.8% | 1.4% (#19) | 1.3% (#22) | 1.5% (#17) | free |
| Buitrago Santiago | 23.00 | 2.8% | 2.4% (#10) | 2.7% (#10) | 2.5% (#9) | free |
| Widar Jarno | 34.00 | 1.9% | 2.5% (#9) | 2.4% (#12) | 2.4% (#10) | free |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.1% (#22) | 1.2% (#24) | 1.0% (#23) | free |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC showdown win p | Mountain break win p | Attrition win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landa Mikel | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 3 | Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| 4 | Miquel Delgado Pau | Bahrain Victorious | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 5 | Berrade Urko | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Hirt Jan | NSN Cycling Team | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 7 | Nordhagen Jørgen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 8 | Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| 9 | Calzoni Walter | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Fortunato Lorenzo | XDS Astana Team | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC showdown | 0.24% | 0.80% |
| Mountain break | 0.30% | 0.80% |
| Attrition | 0.24% | 0.80% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.26% | 0.80% |
Reflection
The road picked the escape, which is what the key said, and then graded it the other way. Mikel Landa went clear and won alone in 4:58:01, 47 seconds ahead of Tobias Halland Johannessen and 1:27 ahead of Ramses Debruyne, with only three riders inside two minutes of him and eighteen inside ten. The classification men were nowhere near it. The key was res_2 .45 / gc_day .40 / res_4 .15 and the oracle returned res_4: covered, not exact, weight on true 0.15. The shadow agent, which had the same three items in the other order, scored better on weight at 0.23 while also missing the argmax.
The grade is the lesson, and it is now a pattern rather than an accident. This is the third consecutive break-won mountain finish at this Vuelta to come back res_4 rather than res_2, after stage 15 and stage 19. The morning note explicitly argued the other way, that a wall of 8.3 km at 9.8% would select pure climbers and so deserved res_2 with res_4 kept to a graded-neighbour weight. The realised top fifteen was in fact climber-heavy, mountain .733 against rolling .133, and the day was still labelled res_4. Whatever separates the two items at this race, it is not the archetype share of the front group, and three straight misses in the same direction say the prior on that pair should be flipped until a mountain escape here actually returns res_2.
Against the book the boards did well everywhere except on the winner. Renormalised, the three reads gave Landa 0.27%, 0.34% and 0.29% where the book had him at 0.80%. But they gave Johannessen 4.6% to 5.2% against a book price of 1.27%, and he finished second, and Debruyne 2.0% to 3.7% against 0.64%, and he finished third. On the two podium places the model was three to five times the book and right to be. The day-menu channel was neutral on retrieval: eight of the top fifteen surfaced with the key against seven or eight from the production board.
The hindsight run says course knowledge was not the constraint. Given the day's actual shape as references, the reconstruction still prices Landa at 0.29% and ranks him 52nd. The reason is visible in his record rather than in the parcours: his best result anywhere in 2026 before this stage was fourteenth, at Catalunya in March, and he had not won a bike race since the Vuelta a Burgos in August 2021. A feature set built on recent results has nothing to work with there, and the book, at 81.0, barely did either. Some winners are not mispriced so much as unpriceable in advance, and it is worth keeping that category separate from the days where we genuinely read the road wrong.
The classification moved more than the stage win did. Mas extended his lead over Roglic from 1:37 to 2:15 while Gall took seventeen seconds back to sit 2:44 down, so second and third are now 29 seconds apart going into a final stage that carries bonus seconds at both the intermediate sprint and the line. Sepp Kuss climbed from eleventh to fifth and Oscar Onley slipped to sixth. That is the watch item for stage 21: the race for the podium is live in a way the race for red is not, and the two GC heads disagree about it more sharply than at any point this race, with the outlook head giving Mas 77.9% against a book at 82.9% while the blend, which cannot see the standings, has him fourth at 9.3% behind Roglic on 29.8%.