The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 101% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Söderqvist Jakob | LIDL-TREK | 41.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Vacek Mathias | LIDL-TREK | 13.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Walscheid Max | LIDL-TREK | 9.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Álvarez Héctor | LIDL-TREK FUTURE RACING | 5.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Mouris Wessel | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 4.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Biesterbos Frits | TEAM PICNIC POSTNL | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| van der Tuuk Axel | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Behrens Niklas | TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Guernalec Thibault | TOTALENERGIES | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| van Dijke Tim | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Larsen Niklas | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| van Dijke Mick | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Mouris Michiel | RED BULL - BORA - HANSGROHE ROOKIES | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Eekhoff Nils | TEAM PICNIC POSTNL | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Söderqvist Jakob | 41.5% | 39.0% | 41.7% | 60.7% | 89.1% | n/a |
| 2 | Vacek Mathias | 13.8% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 33.9% | 80.3% | n/a |
| 3 | Walscheid Max | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 25.4% | 70.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Álvarez Héctor | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 21.1% | 65.4% | n/a |
| 5 | Mouris Wessel | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 10.4% | 62.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Biesterbos Frits | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 9.8% | 53.7% | n/a |
| 7 | van der Tuuk Axel | 2.6% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 54.7% | n/a |
| 8 | Behrens Niklas | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 8.2% | 46.1% | n/a |
| 9 | Guernalec Thibault | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 55.4% | n/a |
| 10 | van Dijke Tim | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 11.4% | 48.3% | n/a |
| 11 | Larsen Niklas | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 6.3% | 54.5% | n/a |
| 12 | van Dijke Mick | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 9.8% | 46.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Mouris Michiel | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 7.0% | 41.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Eekhoff Nils | 1.1% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 9.2% | 40.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Leroux Samuel | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 33.7% | n/a |
| 16 | Kockelmann Mathieu | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 4.8% | 39.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Andersen Mads | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 6.0% | 41.3% | n/a |
| 18 | van Poppel Danny | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 3.7% | 20.6% | n/a |
| 19 | Oosterveld Steijn | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 22.5% | n/a |
| 20 | Hobbs Henry | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 22.8% | n/a |
| 21 | Michielsen Thor | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 19.6% | n/a |
| 22 | Brunel Alexys | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 14.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Müller Tobias | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 18.6% | n/a |
| 24 | Coppens Michiel | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 25 | Dekker David | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 14.3% | n/a |
| 26 | Turgis Anthony | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Malmberg Matias | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 21.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Boulahoite Rayan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 28.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Dorussen Johan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 18.3% | n/a |
| 30 | Magagnotti Alessio | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 8.7% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vacek Mathias | LIDL-TREK | 13.8% |
| 2 | Larsen Niklas | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 1.6% |
| 3 | Söderqvist Jakob | LIDL-TREK | 41.5% |
| 4 | Walscheid Max | LIDL-TREK | 9.7% |
| 5 | Álvarez Héctor | LIDL-TREK FUTURE RACING | 5.7% |
| 6 | Mouris Wessel | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 4.3% |
| 7 | van der Tuuk Axel | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 2.6% |
| 8 | Boulahoite Rayan | TOTALENERGIES | 0.1% |
| 9 | Leroux Samuel | TOTALENERGIES | 1.0% |
| 10 | Bloem Joren | UNIBET ROSE ROCKETS | 0.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 13.79% | – |