The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
| Rider | Team | Montjuïc archetype | Reduced sprint | Selective hilly | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 35.9% | 17.4% | 24.8% | 43.7% | 1.72 | 39.0% | +4.7pp |
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 2.2% | 14.1% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +13.9pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 10.2% | 17.00 | 3.9% | +6.2pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 10.1% | 21.00 | 3.2% | +6.9pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 6.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 8.5% | 23.00 | 2.9% | +5.6pp |
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.9% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 6.7% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +6.0pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 17.00 | 3.9% | +2.5pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 0.8% | 5.50 | 12.2% | -5.8pp |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 2.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +5.6pp |
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.5% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 1001.00 | 0.1% | +4.8pp |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +2.1pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 29.00 | 2.3% | +1.0pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +2.1pp |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 0.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +1.1pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 29.00 | 2.3% | -0.6pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.0pp |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +1.2pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.8pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.4pp |
| Gaviria Fernando | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 35.9% | 46.3% | 30.7% | 70.7% | 84.9% | 1.72 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 34.6% | 23.00 |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 6.4% | 2.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 37.9% | 17.00 |
| 4 | van der Poel Mathieu | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 20.5% | 50.8% | 5.50 |
| 5 | Evenepoel Remco | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 24.4% | 17.00 |
| 6 | De Lie Arnaud | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 10.6% | 39.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Pidcock Tom | 3.2% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 37.2% | 29.00 |
| 8 | Pedersen Mads | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 9.2% | 32.7% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Philipsen Jasper | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 8.6% | 31.1% | 301.00 |
| 10 | Girmay Biniam | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 9.4% | 41.1% | 251.00 |
| 11 | Vingegaard Jonas | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 5.4% | 27.0% | 21.00 |
| 12 | Martinez Lenny | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 29.2% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Grégoire Romain | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 6.2% | 37.1% | 29.00 |
| 14 | Lipowitz Florian | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 24.7% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 34.4% | 151.00 |
| 16 | Ayuso Juan | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 28.9% | 81.00 |
| 17 | Vacek Mathias | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 25.9% | 19.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 27.2% | 126.00 |
| 19 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 32.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 19.1% | 101.00 |
| 21 | Aranburu Alex | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 22.2% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 14.1% | 501.00 |
| 23 | Merlier Tim | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 6.4% | 21.7% | n/a |
| 24 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 19.5% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 14.4% | 23.00 |
| 26 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 18.9% | 251.00 |
| 27 | Carapaz Richard | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 24.8% | 81.00 |
| 28 | Matthews Michael | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 19.3% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 28.8% | 401.00 |
| 30 | Kooij Olav | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 5.4% | 11.8% | 1001.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 17.4% | 21.9% | 14.4% | 45.8% | 67.8% | 1.72 |
| 2 | Philipsen Jasper | 14.1% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 34.2% | 64.3% | 301.00 |
| 3 | Merlier Tim | 7.3% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 28.1% | 55.0% | n/a |
| 4 | De Lie Arnaud | 7.1% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 58.0% | n/a |
| 5 | van der Poel Mathieu | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 26.4% | 57.6% | 5.50 |
| 6 | Girmay Biniam | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 18.8% | 60.4% | 251.00 |
| 7 | Kooij Olav | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 17.0% | 40.1% | 1001.00 |
| 8 | Pedersen Mads | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 14.2% | 42.9% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Pidcock Tom | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 39.0% | 29.00 |
| 10 | Seixas Paul | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 9.1% | 41.8% | 23.00 |
| 11 | Evenepoel Remco | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 20.6% | 17.00 |
| 12 | Kanter Max | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 10.7% | 45.1% | n/a |
| 13 | del Toro Isaac | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 6.4% | 26.9% | 17.00 |
| 14 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 11.0% | 43.7% | n/a |
| 15 | Grégoire Romain | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 5.5% | 32.4% | 29.00 |
| 16 | Gaviria Fernando | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 22.8% | n/a |
| 17 | Vacek Mathias | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 19.2% | 19.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 4.5% | 26.1% | 126.00 |
| 19 | Matthews Michael | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 7.4% | 41.7% | 81.00 |
| 20 | Oldani Stefano | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 38.7% | 501.00 |
| 21 | Ackermann Pascal | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 24.1% | n/a |
| 22 | Vingegaard Jonas | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 20.6% | 21.00 |
| 23 | Aranburu Alex | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 18.7% | 101.00 |
| 24 | Martinez Lenny | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 19.1% | 101.00 |
| 25 | Ayuso Juan | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 25.3% | 81.00 |
| 26 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 21.9% | 23.00 |
| 27 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 24.7% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Bittner Pavel | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 6.3% | 29.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Askey Lewis | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 22.3% | 601.00 |
| 30 | Fretin Milan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 23.1% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 24.8% | 29.5% | 23.5% | 57.9% | 77.3% | 1.72 |
| 2 | Philipsen Jasper | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 16.8% | 38.5% | 301.00 |
| 3 | van der Poel Mathieu | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 25.5% | 53.9% | 5.50 |
| 4 | De Lie Arnaud | 5.4% | 2.2% | 6.2% | 11.9% | 40.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Pedersen Mads | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 14.3% | 40.9% | 41.00 |
| 6 | Girmay Biniam | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 11.3% | 47.6% | 251.00 |
| 7 | Seixas Paul | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 12.0% | 42.0% | 23.00 |
| 8 | Pidcock Tom | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 35.6% | 29.00 |
| 9 | Merlier Tim | 2.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 10.7% | 25.3% | n/a |
| 10 | Evenepoel Remco | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 6.0% | 21.1% | 17.00 |
| 11 | del Toro Isaac | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 25.2% | 17.00 |
| 12 | Vingegaard Jonas | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 23.9% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Grégoire Romain | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 6.2% | 35.8% | 29.00 |
| 14 | Kooij Olav | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 6.3% | 18.2% | 1001.00 |
| 15 | Wærenskjold Søren | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 8.7% | 31.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Kanter Max | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 8.1% | 31.4% | n/a |
| 17 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 26.1% | 126.00 |
| 18 | Ayuso Juan | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 24.2% | 81.00 |
| 19 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 25.0% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Oldani Stefano | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 35.8% | 501.00 |
| 21 | Martinez Lenny | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 19.4% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Vacek Mathias | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 16.5% | 19.00 |
| 23 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 19.6% | 23.00 |
| 24 | Aranburu Alex | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 19.5% | 101.00 |
| 25 | Lipowitz Florian | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 10.8% | 101.00 |
| 26 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 16.1% | 101.00 |
| 27 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 18.6% | 201.00 |
| 28 | Matthews Michael | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 6.2% | 29.4% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Carapaz Richard | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 20.8% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Gaviria Fernando | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 13.5% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 43.7% | 48.5% | 37.3% | 77.1% | 88.8% | 1.72 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 30.9% | 67.1% | 17.00 |
| 3 | Vingegaard Jonas | 10.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 39.0% | 79.3% | 21.00 |
| 4 | Seixas Paul | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 17.4% | 58.2% | 23.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 6.7% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 15.7% | 67.9% | 101.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 12.0% | 58.5% | 17.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 11.7% | 53.5% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 39.8% | 151.00 |
| 9 | Martinez Lenny | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 5.4% | 35.7% | 101.00 |
| 10 | Yates Adam | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 27.0% | 501.00 |
| 11 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 33.2% | 126.00 |
| 12 | Carapaz Richard | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 47.4% | 81.00 |
| 13 | Pidcock Tom | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.6% | 40.7% | 29.00 |
| 14 | Arensman Thymen | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 40.7% | n/a |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 21.5% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Hindley Jai | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 29.7% | 801.00 |
| 17 | Gee Derek | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 30.9% | 501.00 |
| 18 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 8.0% | 47.3% | 29.00 |
| 19 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 10.1% | 19.7% | 5.50 |
| 20 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 9.6% | 58.9% | 401.00 |
| 21 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 39.0% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 32.9% | 101.00 |
| 23 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 65.0% | 601.00 |
| 24 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 42.2% | 801.00 |
| 25 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 4.1% | 23.5% | 301.00 |
| 26 | Kuss Sepp | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 19.5% | n/a |
| 27 | McNulty Brandon | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 23.0% | 401.00 |
| 28 | Higuita Sergio | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 26.2% | 301.00 |
| 29 | Izagirre Ion | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 25.1% | n/a |
| 30 | O'Connor Ben | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 9.5% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Montjuïc archetype win p | Reduced sprint win p | Selective hilly win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| 2 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 35.9% | 17.4% | 24.8% | 43.7% |
| 3 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 10.2% |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 10.1% |
| 5 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| 7 | Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 9 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 6.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 8.5% |
| 10 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Montjuïc archetype | 6.43% | 3.94% |
| Reduced sprint | 2.14% | 3.94% |
| Selective hilly | 2.20% | 3.94% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 4.86% | 3.94% |
Reflection
The road answered the fork decisively: it was the selective day, not the reduced sprint. Thirteen riders contested the finish, the fast men were nowhere, and Isaac del Toro beat Pogačar and Evenepoel in the kick from a four-man same-time group. The Montjuïc archetype — our 'this looks like the Catalunya final stage' read — was the right branch. It carried del Toro as its third pick at 6.4% against a book devig of 3.9% (the +2.5pp edge we flagged the day before), and it gave the winner three times what either synthetic read did. The reduced-sprint read spent 14% on Philipsen for nothing; scenario-wise, that branch is now falsified for days shaped like this one.
The more interesting result is the hindsight run. We rebuilt the course input from the five database stages whose finish-gap curves best match how stage 2 actually finished (rolling ~0.65 / mountain ~0.33 — Vuelta '23 Andorra, UAE Tour summit days, Giro '25 Tagliacozzo) and re-ran the same stack. Even with that perfect knowledge of the day's character, the model gives del Toro 4.9% — LESS than our pre-race Montjuïc read did — and pushes Pogačar to 43.7%. Course knowledge was not the binding constraint. The model prices del Toro as UAE's second card on class and form, and no profile input changes that; what it structurally cannot see is the team playing that second card while Vingegaard's team defends yellow and Pogačar sits on wheels.
Two things to carry forward. First, the edge framing worked exactly as designed: we don't need to out-call the winner, we need our price to be on the right side of the book's, and 6.4% vs 3.9% on a 17/1 winner is that. Second, the model keeps pricing Paul Seixas far above the market on every selective profile (6-11% vs ~2-3% book) — either our strongest standing edge or a systematic youth-form artifact, and three weeks of stages will tell us which.