The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
| Rider | Team | Break day | Hard-men sprint | Late move | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 6.5% | 31.1% | 21.4% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +29.8pp |
| Philipsen Jasper | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.3% | 18.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 67.00 | 0.9% | +17.2pp |
| Kooij Olav | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.2% | 11.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +11.0pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | – | 1.0% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 601.00 | 0.1% | +10.2pp |
| De Lie Arnaud | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.3% | 9.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.6% | 8.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 4.00 | 15.6% | -7.4pp |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 3.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 9.00 | 6.9% | -0.1pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 0.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +5.5pp |
| Girmay Biniam | NSN Cycling Team | 0.5% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 41.00 | 1.5% | +3.4pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | 1.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +4.5pp |
| Kanter Max | XDS Astana Team | 0.2% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 251.00 | 0.2% | +3.0pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | – | 0.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 801.00 | 0.1% | +2.8pp |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | 0.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1001.00 | 0.1% | +2.8pp |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +2.4pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | – | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 34.00 | 1.8% | +0.8pp |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +1.8pp |
| Merlier Tim | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +1.8pp |
| Askey Lewis | NSN Cycling Team | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +1.5pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | – | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 41.00 | 1.5% | +0.1pp |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 34.00 | 1.8% | -0.3pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | – | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.2pp |
| Aranburu Alex | Cofidis | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 67.00 | 0.9% | +0.5pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | – | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.7pp |
| Vacek Mathias | Lidl-Trek | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 15.00 | 4.2% | -2.9pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 4.9% | 16.6% | 9.00 |
| 2 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 17.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 17.2% | 301.00 |
| 4 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Aranburu Alex | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 16.7% | 67.00 |
| 6 | Kuss Sepp | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 12.3% | 1001.00 |
| 7 | Pedersen Mads | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 9.8% | 4.00 |
| 8 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 16.0% | 34.00 |
| 9 | Schmid Mauro | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 13.3% | 34.00 |
| 10 | McNulty Brandon | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 13.9% | 29.00 |
| 11 | Higuita Sergio | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 20.9% | 301.00 |
| 12 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 22.6% | 201.00 |
| 13 | Baudin Alex | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 20.0% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 19.5% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Vacek Mathias | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 13.3% | 15.00 |
| 16 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 15.2% | 81.00 |
| 17 | Storer Michael | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 5.3% | 26.7% | 301.00 |
| 18 | Bernal Egan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 12.4% | 401.00 |
| 19 | Plapp Lucas | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 12.0% | n/a |
| 20 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 13.3% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Wærenskjold Søren | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Berckmoes Jenno | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 22.3% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 10.2% | 26.00 |
| 24 | Jegat Jordan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 17.0% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Steinhauser Georg | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 14.9% | 301.00 |
| 26 | Harper Chris | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 12.5% | 801.00 |
| 27 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 12.0% | 67.00 |
| 28 | De Lie Arnaud | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 15.9% | n/a |
| 29 | Tejada Harold | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 13.0% | 67.00 |
| 30 | O'Connor Ben | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 13.3% | 151.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipsen Jasper | 18.1% | 17.2% | 16.7% | 32.5% | 49.2% | 67.00 |
| 2 | Kooij Olav | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 16.7% | 26.1% | 151.00 |
| 3 | De Lie Arnaud | 9.0% | 3.7% | 9.5% | 15.2% | 39.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Pedersen Mads | 8.2% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 23.8% | 51.2% | 4.00 |
| 5 | van der Poel Mathieu | 6.9% | 12.4% | 4.9% | 31.7% | 55.4% | 9.00 |
| 6 | Pogacar Tadej | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 17.9% | 50.4% | 51.00 |
| 7 | Girmay Biniam | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 14.9% | 45.0% | 41.00 |
| 8 | Kanter Max | 3.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 15.0% | 42.2% | 251.00 |
| 9 | Wærenskjold Søren | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 8.4% | 29.0% | 201.00 |
| 10 | Pidcock Tom | 2.7% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 35.6% | 34.00 |
| 11 | Oldani Stefano | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 49.1% | 501.00 |
| 12 | Merlier Tim | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 6.5% | 17.0% | 501.00 |
| 13 | Askey Lewis | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 7.4% | 29.8% | 501.00 |
| 14 | Matthews Michael | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 6.4% | 34.5% | 34.00 |
| 15 | Aranburu Alex | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 35.1% | 67.00 |
| 16 | Evenepoel Remco | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 4.8% | 18.5% | 301.00 |
| 17 | Vacek Mathias | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 3.9% | 19.0% | 15.00 |
| 18 | Van Gils Maxim | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 5.6% | 20.6% | 26.00 |
| 19 | Grégoire Romain | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.5% | 24.9% | 41.00 |
| 20 | Gaviria Fernando | 1.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 5.0% | 19.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Seixas Paul | 1.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 31.3% | 601.00 |
| 22 | Fretin Milan | 0.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 27.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Wright Fred | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 24.8% | 201.00 |
| 24 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 11.6% | 67.00 |
| 25 | Ackermann Pascal | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 21.5% | n/a |
| 26 | Godon Dorian | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 5.1% | 27.7% | 34.00 |
| 27 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 29.3% | 41.00 |
| 28 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 14.7% | 101.00 |
| 29 | del Toro Isaac | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 11.8% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Biesterbos Frits | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 22.1% | 601.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 31.1% | 37.1% | 33.3% | 51.3% | 73.4% | 51.00 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 10.3% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 51.9% | 601.00 |
| 3 | del Toro Isaac | 5.9% | 1.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 38.7% | 151.00 |
| 4 | Evenepoel Remco | 4.8% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 33.6% | 301.00 |
| 5 | Vingegaard Jonas | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 36.1% | 801.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 2.8% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 29.4% | 1001.00 |
| 7 | Pidcock Tom | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 33.9% | 34.00 |
| 8 | van der Poel Mathieu | 1.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 10.0% | 28.2% | 9.00 |
| 9 | Grégoire Romain | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 6.7% | 35.7% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 38.1% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Ayuso Juan | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 6.7% | 44.4% | 801.00 |
| 12 | Martinez Lenny | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 29.2% | 301.00 |
| 13 | Arensman Thymen | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 19.0% | 301.00 |
| 14 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 17.0% | 1001.00 |
| 15 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 33.5% | 501.00 |
| 16 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 20.5% | 67.00 |
| 17 | Pedersen Mads | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 15.0% | 4.00 |
| 18 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 17.9% | 81.00 |
| 19 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 22.6% | 601.00 |
| 20 | Carapaz Richard | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 27.8% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Hindley Jai | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 15.9% | 801.00 |
| 22 | Gee Derek | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 15.8% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 25.5% | 301.00 |
| 24 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 4.5% | 24.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Aranburu Alex | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 14.1% | 67.00 |
| 26 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 36.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 10.7% | 26.00 |
| 28 | De Lie Arnaud | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 16.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 11.7% | 34.00 |
| 30 | Higuita Sergio | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 19.1% | 301.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 21.4% | 23.6% | 27.0% | 38.1% | 65.2% | 51.00 |
| 2 | Seixas Paul | 7.5% | 3.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 42.7% | 601.00 |
| 3 | Evenepoel Remco | 4.6% | 1.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 20.9% | 301.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 4.6% | 0.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 22.2% | 151.00 |
| 5 | van der Poel Mathieu | 2.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 13.4% | 28.4% | 9.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 9.5% | 37.6% | 1001.00 |
| 7 | Pidcock Tom | 1.7% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 7.7% | 33.2% | 34.00 |
| 8 | Vingegaard Jonas | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 22.6% | 801.00 |
| 9 | Martinez Lenny | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 33.2% | 301.00 |
| 10 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 33.8% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Arensman Thymen | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 16.6% | 301.00 |
| 12 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 23.0% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 16.7% | 67.00 |
| 14 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 22.6% | 501.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 17.2% | 81.00 |
| 16 | Yates Adam | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 14.4% | 1001.00 |
| 17 | Ayuso Juan | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 5.6% | 30.6% | 801.00 |
| 18 | Gee Derek | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 16.5% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 22.0% | 301.00 |
| 20 | Aranburu Alex | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 13.9% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Pedersen Mads | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 12.6% | 4.00 |
| 22 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 4.5% | 24.6% | n/a |
| 23 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 20.3% | 601.00 |
| 24 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 12.1% | 26.00 |
| 25 | Carapaz Richard | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 23.0% | 67.00 |
| 26 | Uijtdebroeks Cian | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 29.5% | n/a |
| 27 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 17.6% | 201.00 |
| 28 | Hindley Jai | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 14.8% | 801.00 |
| 29 | De Lie Arnaud | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 15.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 14.5% | 34.00 |
Angle
Top 20 riders by the latest GC-model blend (tdf_gc.json) removed — captains don't get in the break. Remaining riders under the 'Break day' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 20% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Break day win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.8% | 3.9% | 9 | 6.9% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.7% | 3.6% | n/a | – |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.7% | 3.4% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Uijtdebroeks Cian | Movistar Team | 0.6% | 2.9% | n/a | – |
| Aranburu Alex | Cofidis | 0.5% | 2.7% | 67 | 0.9% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.5% | 2.7% | 1001 | 0.1% |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 0.5% | 2.6% | 4 | 15.6% |
| Healy Ben | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.5% | 2.3% | 34 | 1.8% |
| Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.4% | 2.1% | 34 | 1.8% |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.4% | 2.1% | 29 | 2.2% |
| Higuita Sergio | XDS Astana Team | 0.4% | 2.1% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Izagirre Ion | Cofidis | 0.4% | 2.1% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Baudin Alex | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.4% | 2.0% | 51 | 1.2% |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.4% | 1.9% | 101 | 0.6% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside our top-20 GC pool, i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | Break day | Hard-men sprint | Late move | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedersen Mads | 4.00 | 15.6% | 0.5% (#27) | 8.2% (#4) | 0.7% (#17) | free |
| van der Poel Mathieu | 9.00 | 6.9% | 0.8% (#14) | 6.9% (#5) | 1.9% (#8) | free |
| Vacek Mathias | 15.00 | 4.2% | 0.4% (#35) | 1.3% (#17) | 0.3% (#36) | free |
| Simmons Quinn | 15.00 | 4.2% | 0.1% (#61) | 0.1% (#80) | 0.1% (#61) | free |
| Valgren Michael | 21.00 | 3.0% | 0.1% (#70) | 0.1% (#87) | 0.1% (#86) | free |
| Van Gils Maxim | 26.00 | 2.4% | 0.3% (#43) | 1.2% (#18) | 0.4% (#27) | free |
| Abrahamsen Jonas | 26.00 | 2.4% | 0.1% (#62) | 0.1% (#92) | 0.1% (#66) | free |
| Wellens Tim | 29.00 | 2.2% | 0.2% (#53) | 0.0% (#115) | 0.2% (#55) | free |
| McNulty Brandon | 29.00 | 2.2% | 0.4% (#30) | 0.1% (#68) | 0.4% (#32) | free |
| Healy Ben | 34.00 | 1.8% | 0.5% (#28) | 0.0% (#113) | 0.4% (#29) | free |
Angle
The stage-4 lesson as a filter: no terrain reading means 'selective enough to shed the fast finishers but won by a punchy non-climber', so this table synthesizes it. We drop the top 20 GC-model riders and every pure sprinter, then renormalize each reading over the survivors — P(win | the winner is a punchy non-climber). Pure sprinter is the model's own verdict, not a hand list: probability under a flat-sprint anchor of this exact field >= 1% while retaining under 8% of it when the day turns selective ('break_day' read) — that collapse is what separates a Merlier from a Pedersen. Classified out: Ackermann Pascal, Ballerini Davide, Bauhaus Phil, Bittner Pavel, De Lie Arnaud, Fretin Milan, Gaviria Fernando, Girmay Biniam, Kanter Max, Kooij Olav, Merlier Tim, Philipsen Jasper, de Kleijn Arvid. Pool holds Break day 19% / Hard-men sprint 40% / Late move 17% of each reading's unconditional book.
| Rider | Team | P(win | pool) Break day | P(win | pool) Hard-men sprint | P(win | pool) Late move | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.6% | 20.7% | 4.3% | 4 | 15.6% |
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 4.0% | 17.3% | 11.3% | 9 | 6.9% |
| Wærenskjold Søren | Uno-X Mobility | 1.7% | 6.8% | 0.7% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Oldani Stefano | Caja Rural-Seguros RGA | 0.6% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 501 | 0.1% |
| Askey Lewis | NSN Cycling Team | 0.5% | 4.0% | 0.3% | 501 | 0.1% |
| Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.6% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 34 | 1.8% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.7% | 0.1% | 3.2% | n/a | – |
| Aranburu Alex | Cofidis | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 67 | 0.9% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 3.5% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Vacek Mathias | Lidl-Trek | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 15 | 4.2% |
| Van Gils Maxim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 26 | 2.4% |
| Uijtdebroeks Cian | Movistar Team | 3.0% | 0.2% | 2.7% | n/a | – |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.7% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 1001 | 0.1% |
| Healy Ben | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.4% | 0.1% | 2.3% | 34 | 1.8% |
| Higuita Sergio | XDS Astana Team | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 301 | 0.2% |
| Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 2.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 34 | 1.8% |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Break day win p | Hard-men sprint win p | Late move win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.8% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% |
| 2 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 3 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| 4 | Baudin Alex | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 5 | Ganna Filippo | Netcompany INEOS Cycling Team | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 0.5% | 8.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 7 | Matthews Michael | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.1% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Jegat Jordan | Team TotalEnergies | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 10 | Quinn Sean | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Break day | 0.77% | 6.93% |
| Hard-men sprint | 6.85% | 6.93% |
| Late move | 1.91% | 6.93% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 2.55% | 6.93% |
Reflection
The road picked the late-move branch, raced by the punchy pool. No long break settled it: van der Poel, Johannessen, Pidcock and Baudin went clear over the final climbs and held six seconds over a ~36-man reduced peloton containing every GC captain (Pogacar 11th, Evenepoel 12th) — four clear, 40 within 30s, only 63 inside ten minutes on the heat-shortened 155.5 km. Structurally that is the late_move read; the winner, though, was the fast hard-man the hard_mens_sprint read was built around.
Scoring the winner: hard_mens_sprint gave van der Poel 6.9% (#5) — exactly the book's devigged 6.9%, our best read of him. late_move gave 1.9% (#8), break_day 0.8% (#14). But the cleanest hit was the punchy-pool table, the stage-4 lesson formalized this week: its late-move column made van der Poel the single top pick of the whole pool at 11.3%, and its hard-men column had him #2 (17.3%) behind Pedersen (20.7%, finished 6th). Johannessen (2nd, book 0.6%) and Pidcock (3rd, book 1.8%) sat top-10 on both selective reads — the model had the podium's type right even where the book didn't.
The hindsight run says course knowledge was not the constraint, again. Reconstructing the day from its actual finish curve (rolling 0.64 / mountain 0.35) prices van der Poel at just 2.6% (#5) — worse than the pre-race hard-men read — and puts Pogacar on top at 21%, because a terrain-true selective profile buries fast men and promotes GC men. What decided the stage is the thing the model structurally can't see: four punchy riders rolling clear at 24 km while the GC pool marked each other. Same conclusion as stages 2 and 4; this is the GT hard-day hole, not a reference-picking error.
Carry forward: on selective non-mountain days the punchy-pool renormalization is the board to read, not the raw blend — two data points now (stage 4 retro-derived, stage 9 prospective and it named the winner). Keep the anchor_sprint + punchy_filter machinery on every hard rolling/hilly day; consider promoting the pool's conditional column to the hub pick on days where the GC pool is expected to neutralize. Also mark stage 9 as a labeled corpus row for the post-Paris GT hard-day retrospective: shape = late-move-from-reduced-peloton, winner type = punchy fast-man.