The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC day 113%, Full mountain 117%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 114% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC day | Mountain break | Full mountain | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 31.1% | – | 41.1% | 30.5% | 1.50 | 42.5% | -1.4pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 9.3% | – | 12.9% | 7.9% | 19.00 | 3.4% | +9.5pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 11.2% | – | 12.8% | 10.6% | 26.00 | 2.5% | +10.4pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 8.6% | – | 7.5% | 8.8% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +7.5pp |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 7.2% | – | 6.3% | 5.7% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +6.4pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 7.0% | – | 5.1% | 7.2% | 12.00 | 5.3% | +1.9pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 2.2% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.9pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 2.1% | – | 2.5% | 2.1% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.7pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.3% | – | 1.9% | 2.1% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +0.8pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.8% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.7pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 15.00 | 4.2% | -2.4pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.6% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 21.00 | 3.0% | -1.4pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.4% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.0pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | – | 1.0% | 1.5% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.8pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +1.1pp |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.4% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.7pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.5pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 34.00 | 1.9% | -0.6pp |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.6pp |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.4pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +0.1pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 31.1% | 43.3% | 24.4% | 68.8% | 84.0% | 1.50 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 11.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 23.1% | 58.1% | 26.00 |
| 3 | Vingegaard Jonas | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 26.3% | 71.7% | 19.00 |
| 4 | Seixas Paul | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 15.9% | 56.2% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 7.2% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 65.9% | 81.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 7.0% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 51.0% | 12.00 |
| 7 | Martinez Lenny | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 39.7% | 41.00 |
| 8 | Arensman Thymen | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 8.3% | 27.9% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Ayuso Juan | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 6.7% | 42.3% | 81.00 |
| 10 | Carapaz Richard | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 31.2% | 15.00 |
| 11 | Hindley Jai | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 5.9% | 30.4% | 201.00 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 38.5% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Gee Derek | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 18.8% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Yates Adam | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 33.4% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Pidcock Tom | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 5.4% | 52.1% | 34.00 |
| 16 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 36.5% | 101.00 |
| 17 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 24.6% | 251.00 |
| 18 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 4.0% | 18.5% | 81.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 38.9% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 21.1% | 101.00 |
| 21 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 7.1% | 28.1% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 5.3% | 49.8% | 201.00 |
| 23 | McNulty Brandon | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 20.3% | 51.00 |
| 24 | Grégoire Romain | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 5.7% | 30.0% | 67.00 |
| 25 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 37.3% | 101.00 |
| 26 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 18.5% | 251.00 |
| 27 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 13.4% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Jegat Jordan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 35.4% | 151.00 |
| 29 | Foss Tobias | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 9.7% | 251.00 |
| 30 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 251.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arensman Thymen | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 7.4% | 25.3% | 101.00 |
| 2 | Hindley Jai | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 23.3% | 201.00 |
| 3 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 8.3% | 43.4% | 21.00 |
| 4 | Gee Derek | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 10.3% | 26.7% | 151.00 |
| 5 | Carapaz Richard | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 27.6% | 15.00 |
| 6 | Yates Adam | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 23.7% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 18.2% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 23.7% | 251.00 |
| 9 | Pidcock Tom | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 6.3% | 44.4% | 34.00 |
| 10 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 18.2% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 31.4% | 151.00 |
| 12 | Kuss Sepp | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 24.1% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 4.3% | 38.4% | 201.00 |
| 14 | Grégoire Romain | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 13.9% | 67.00 |
| 15 | Aranburu Alex | 0.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 10.0% | 501.00 |
| 16 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 18.8% | 251.00 |
| 17 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 16.8% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 14.8% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 4.2% | 15.5% | 251.00 |
| 20 | Baudin Alex | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 20.3% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Jegat Jordan | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 29.7% | 151.00 |
| 22 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 9.2% | 251.00 |
| 23 | Healy Ben | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 10.6% | 51.00 |
| 24 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 18.5% | 101.00 |
| 25 | Tejada Harold | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 19.4% | 101.00 |
| 26 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.9% | 101.00 |
| 27 | O'Connor Ben | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 14.2% | 51.00 |
| 28 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 18.9% | 67.00 |
| 29 | Steinhauser Georg | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 8.4% | 201.00 |
| 30 | Schmid Mauro | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 9.4% | 201.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 41.1% | 46.0% | 34.0% | 71.6% | 87.4% | 1.50 |
| 2 | Vingegaard Jonas | 12.9% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 40.5% | 84.5% | 19.00 |
| 3 | Evenepoel Remco | 12.8% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 32.1% | 74.7% | 26.00 |
| 4 | Seixas Paul | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 15.0% | 64.7% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Lipowitz Florian | 6.3% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 14.7% | 74.6% | 81.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 5.1% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 11.8% | 60.7% | 12.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 7.6% | 55.1% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 6.1% | 52.1% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Carapaz Richard | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 5.7% | 41.7% | 15.00 |
| 10 | Hindley Jai | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 36.1% | 201.00 |
| 11 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 50.5% | 21.00 |
| 12 | Gee Derek | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 20.5% | 38.6% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Arensman Thymen | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 27.0% | 101.00 |
| 14 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 5.9% | 19.3% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 28.5% | 251.00 |
| 16 | Yates Adam | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 28.0% | 101.00 |
| 17 | Pidcock Tom | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 6.1% | 51.3% | 34.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 4.5% | 48.9% | 101.00 |
| 19 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 42.9% | 101.00 |
| 20 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 8.0% | 34.3% | 151.00 |
| 21 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 49.0% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 19.9% | 101.00 |
| 23 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 41.9% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Grégoire Romain | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 8.4% | 26.0% | 67.00 |
| 25 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 16.4% | 251.00 |
| 26 | McNulty Brandon | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 17.8% | 51.00 |
| 27 | Jegat Jordan | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 37.5% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 51.00 |
| 29 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 29.9% | 67.00 |
| 30 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 19.3% | 51.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 30.5% | 40.3% | 24.4% | 71.6% | 86.1% | 1.50 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 10.6% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 25.3% | 61.2% | 26.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 57.2% | 51.00 |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 30.8% | 71.5% | 19.00 |
| 5 | del Toro Isaac | 7.2% | 2.7% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 54.8% | 12.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 5.7% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 14.3% | 66.6% | 81.00 |
| 7 | Arensman Thymen | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 6.2% | 23.5% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Ayuso Juan | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 7.1% | 48.2% | 81.00 |
| 9 | Martinez Lenny | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 5.5% | 41.4% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Hindley Jai | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 5.7% | 30.3% | 201.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 6.5% | 34.7% | 15.00 |
| 12 | Gee Derek | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 8.6% | 26.3% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 40.1% | 101.00 |
| 14 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 24.6% | 251.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 19.2% | 81.00 |
| 16 | Yates Adam | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 29.7% | 101.00 |
| 17 | Pidcock Tom | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 7.4% | 49.5% | 34.00 |
| 18 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 10.1% | 51.7% | 21.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 33.3% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 3.9% | 22.1% | 101.00 |
| 21 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 29.2% | 67.00 |
| 22 | Kuss Sepp | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 5.9% | 26.9% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Aranburu Alex | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 10.6% | 501.00 |
| 24 | Bernal Egan | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 38.3% | 101.00 |
| 25 | McNulty Brandon | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 21.5% | 51.00 |
| 26 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 46.7% | 201.00 |
| 27 | Higuita Sergio | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 19.9% | 251.00 |
| 28 | Foss Tobias | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 4.9% | 16.7% | 251.00 |
| 29 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 15.3% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 34.5% | 151.00 |
Angle
The top 10 on GC after stage 9 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Mountain break' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 23% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Mountain break win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.5% | 6.3% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.2% | 5.1% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.1% | 4.8% | 21 | 3.0% |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.1% | 4.7% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.1% | 4.6% | 15 | 4.2% |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.0% | 4.1% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.9% | 3.8% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.9% | 3.7% | 251 | 0.3% |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.8% | 3.4% | 34 | 1.9% |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.6% | 2.6% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.6% | 2.5% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.6% | 2.5% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.6% | 2.4% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.5% | 2.2% | 67 | 1.0% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 10 on GC after stage 9), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | GC day | Mountain break | Full mountain | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | 1.50 | 42.5% | 31.1% (#1) | 16.1% (#1) | 41.1% (#1) | GC #1 |
| del Toro Isaac | 12.00 | 5.3% | 7.0% (#6) | 4.1% (#6) | 5.1% (#6) | GC #3 |
| Carapaz Richard | 15.00 | 4.2% | 1.9% (#10) | 1.1% (#13) | 1.6% (#9) | free |
| Vingegaard Jonas | 19.00 | 3.4% | 9.3% (#3) | 5.9% (#3) | 12.9% (#2) | GC #2 |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | 21.00 | 3.0% | 1.6% (#12) | 1.1% (#11) | 1.5% (#11) | free |
| Evenepoel Remco | 26.00 | 2.5% | 11.2% (#2) | 5.5% (#4) | 12.8% (#3) | GC #4 |
| Pidcock Tom | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.3% (#15) | 0.8% (#18) | 1.1% (#17) | free |
| Martinez Lenny | 41.00 | 1.6% | 2.3% (#7) | 1.4% (#8) | 1.9% (#8) | GC #8 |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | 41.00 | 1.6% | 0.3% (#43) | 0.2% (#44) | 0.2% (#44) | free |
| Seixas Paul | 51.00 | 1.2% | 8.6% (#4) | 6.1% (#2) | 7.5% (#4) | GC #6 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC day win p | Mountain break win p | Full mountain win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 31.1% | 16.1% | 41.1% | 30.5% |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 11.2% | 5.5% | 12.8% | 10.6% |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% |
| 4 | Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 7.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% |
| 5 | Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| 6 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| 7 | Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 9.3% | 5.9% | 12.9% | 7.9% |
| 8 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 7.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% |
| 9 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 10 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC day | 31.06% | 42.50% |
| Mountain break | 16.10% | 42.50% |
| Full mountain | 41.14% | 42.50% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 30.50% | 42.50% |
Reflection
The road picked the GC-day branch and then raced it harder than any of the three reads drew it. Pogacar soloed to Le Lioran 32 seconds clear of Evenepoel, and the breakaway played no part whatsoever: the eight riders first across the line are, in a different order, exactly the eight who now stand 1–8 on GC. It was among the hardest days of this Tour — one man clear, seven inside a minute, only 29 of 176 finishers within ten minutes (stage 6 had 24, stage 4 had 29). The Bastille Day mountain_break read, and with it the book's entire non-GC card, was the wrong branch.
Scoring the winner — on the footing that actually compares with the book, i.e. each read renormalized over the field, because the raw blend is a set of per-rider marginals and totals 113–117% here, so the numbers on the board above flatter us. Renormalized, full_mountain gave Pogacar 35.2% against the book's devigged 42.5%. That is the honest headline: we were MORE CONSERVATIVE than the market on the favourite, and still had him #1 under every reading. The edge was entirely in the tier behind him, and it was large. The gc_day top six — Pogacar, Evenepoel, Vingegaard, Seixas, Lipowitz, del Toro — all six finished inside the actual top eight. Evenepoel: book 2.5%, us 9.9%, second on the road. Seixas: book 1.2% (51 on the line), us 7.6%, third. Lipowitz: book 0.8% (81), us 6.4%, fourth. Ayuso at 81 was fifth and Skjelmose at 101 sixth. Meanwhile the book's non-GC card failed exactly where we said it would: Carapaz (third favourite at 15), Johannessen (21), Pidcock (34) and Paret-Peintre (41) finished 11th, 18th, 9th and 38th, and our reads had them #10, #12, #15 and #43.
The hindsight run says course knowledge was not the constraint — and, this time, that the pre-race reads already spanned the truth. Reconstructing the day from its actual finish curve lands at rolling 0.54 / mountain 0.45 and prices Pogacar at 26.8% renormalized: worse than the 35.2% of the full_mountain read we actually published. (The nearest curve match of all, Puy de Dôme '23, was thrown out by the winner-type filter as a pure break win; the five kept are GC-contested days.) At this level of selectivity the reference pool is dominated by mid-mountain rolling days, so curve-matching under-reads the terrain. The lesson runs opposite to stages 2, 4 and 9: the hardest of our three reads was the right one, and nothing the model structurally cannot see decided this stage.
Carry forward. (1) Stage 10 is the negative control for the GT hard-day hole — a shattered day settled by rider-course fit inside the GC group is exactly what the model prices, and it priced it at book level on the winner and far above book on everyone behind him. The hole is about days settled by break formation and tactics, not about hard days as such: a useful boundary for the post-Paris retrospective. (2) The standing edge is the GC second tier. The book prices names (Carapaz 15, Johannessen 21) while the model prices form and course fit (Seixas, Lipowitz, Ayuso, Skjelmose, all between 51 and 101). That is now two stages running — stage 9 had Johannessen 2nd off a 0.6% book price and Pidcock 3rd off 1.8% — and it is the most repeatable edge of the race so far. (3) One live miscalibration to watch: Vingegaard is #2 or #3 on every read (7.9–12.9%) and finished 7th at +44s. He is still second on GC, but 3:36 down, and the heads keep pricing him as Pogacar's nearest rival.