The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC mountain 114%, Reduced group 117%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 129% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC mountain | Reduced group | Break survives | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 39.1% | 35.6% | – | 36.9% | 1.55 | 40.4% | -1.3pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 12.0% | 12.1% | – | 11.7% | 34.00 | 1.8% | +10.2pp |
| Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 10.4% | 7.8% | – | 9.1% | 21.00 | 3.0% | +7.4pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 6.6% | 8.0% | – | 9.7% | 41.00 | 1.5% | +8.2pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.7% | 7.0% | – | 8.6% | 15.00 | 4.2% | +4.4pp |
| Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 6.7% | 6.5% | – | 7.1% | 67.00 | 0.9% | +6.1pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 2.2% | 2.2% | – | 2.6% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +2.2pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.6% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 41.00 | 1.5% | +1.0pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.2% | 2.0% | – | 2.5% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.8pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.6% | 1.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +1.4pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.5% | 1.7% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 5.00 | 12.5% | -10.6pp |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.3% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.0pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.4% | 1.5% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 17.00 | 3.7% | -2.1pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.1% | 1.1% | – | 1.6% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +0.3pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 1.2% | – | 1.4% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.8pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 251.00 | 0.2% | +1.2pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.4% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.9pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.2% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.9pp |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.8pp |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.7pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 601.00 | 0.1% | +0.9pp |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 23.00 | 2.7% | -2.4pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 39.1% | 44.5% | 32.8% | 72.0% | 88.9% | 1.55 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 12.0% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 25.5% | 68.4% | 34.00 |
| 3 | Vingegaard Jonas | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 40.8% | 85.6% | 21.00 |
| 4 | Lipowitz Florian | 6.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 16.2% | 70.8% | 67.00 |
| 5 | Seixas Paul | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 13.3% | 62.8% | 41.00 |
| 6 | del Toro Isaac | 5.7% | 2.2% | 5.8% | 12.2% | 58.3% | 15.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 7.1% | 51.0% | 151.00 |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 6.4% | 43.1% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Arensman Thymen | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 6.9% | 29.7% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Hindley Jai | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 5.8% | 39.1% | 126.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 5.2% | 39.6% | 5.00 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 16.8% | 50.9% | 17.00 |
| 13 | Gee Derek | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 24.9% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Yates Adam | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 29.0% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 28.9% | 151.00 |
| 16 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 251.00 |
| 17 | Pidcock Tom | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 11.8% | 64.4% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 7.5% | 55.3% | 101.00 |
| 19 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 27.3% | 126.00 |
| 20 | Bernal Egan | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 39.5% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 35.3% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 19.4% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 46.0% | 126.00 |
| 24 | Grégoire Romain | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 6.2% | 25.7% | 601.00 |
| 25 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 16.8% | 201.00 |
| 26 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 8.8% | 81.00 |
| 27 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 22.0% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Jegat Jordan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.6% | 46.1% | 126.00 |
| 29 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 23.7% | 126.00 |
| 30 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 22.5% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 35.6% | 47.9% | 27.5% | 70.0% | 85.5% | 1.55 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 12.1% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 22.2% | 55.5% | 34.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 57.2% | 41.00 |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | 7.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 25.0% | 74.1% | 21.00 |
| 5 | del Toro Isaac | 7.0% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 50.9% | 15.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 6.5% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 61.7% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Arensman Thymen | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 8.7% | 28.9% | 41.00 |
| 8 | Ayuso Juan | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 37.6% | 151.00 |
| 9 | Martinez Lenny | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 31.3% | 101.00 |
| 10 | Carapaz Richard | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 6.0% | 34.0% | 5.00 |
| 11 | Yates Adam | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 21.2% | 101.00 |
| 12 | Hindley Jai | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 27.6% | 126.00 |
| 13 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 11.7% | 43.7% | 17.00 |
| 14 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 6.8% | 19.7% | 251.00 |
| 15 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 6.4% | 40.8% | 101.00 |
| 16 | Gee Derek | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 18.6% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 25.3% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Pidcock Tom | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 7.5% | 54.7% | 51.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 33.1% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 4.1% | 19.9% | 126.00 |
| 21 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 20.7% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 6.6% | 28.7% | 601.00 |
| 23 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 41.1% | 126.00 |
| 24 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 30.1% | 51.00 |
| 25 | Aranburu Alex | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.6% | 1501.00 |
| 26 | Tejada Harold | 0.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 14.0% | 67.00 |
| 27 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 20.9% | 201.00 |
| 28 | McNulty Brandon | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 23.1% | 101.00 |
| 29 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 18.2% | 201.00 |
| 30 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 5.9% | 36.7% | 126.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hindley Jai | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 40.4% | 126.00 |
| 2 | Carapaz Richard | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 41.2% | 5.00 |
| 3 | Gee Derek | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 17.8% | 40.0% | 151.00 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 15.8% | 52.0% | 17.00 |
| 5 | Arensman Thymen | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 29.4% | 41.00 |
| 6 | Yates Adam | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 28.4% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 29.3% | 151.00 |
| 8 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 7.4% | 19.3% | 251.00 |
| 9 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 37.4% | 51.00 |
| 10 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 28.8% | 126.00 |
| 11 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 35.3% | 151.00 |
| 12 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 45.5% | 126.00 |
| 13 | Grégoire Romain | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 6.9% | 28.5% | 601.00 |
| 14 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 18.5% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 18.4% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 8.5% | 81.00 |
| 17 | McNulty Brandon | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 22.2% | 101.00 |
| 18 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 19.6% | 81.00 |
| 19 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 24.2% | 126.00 |
| 20 | Jegat Jordan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 48.1% | 126.00 |
| 21 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 16.2% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Wellens Tim | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 501.00 |
| 23 | Tejada Harold | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 10.3% | 67.00 |
| 24 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 7.6% | 751.00 |
| 25 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 15.3% | 51.00 |
| 26 | Izagirre Ion | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 12.5% | 201.00 |
| 27 | Foss Tobias | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 401.00 |
| 28 | Storer Michael | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 15.2% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 11.9% | 23.00 |
| 30 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 9.3% | 301.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 36.9% | 45.6% | 26.3% | 73.6% | 87.8% | 1.55 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 30.3% | 66.8% | 34.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 17.5% | 61.8% | 41.00 |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 34.6% | 78.0% | 21.00 |
| 5 | del Toro Isaac | 8.6% | 3.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 58.3% | 15.00 |
| 6 | Lipowitz Florian | 7.1% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 70.3% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Ayuso Juan | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 8.0% | 53.0% | 151.00 |
| 8 | Arensman Thymen | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 6.9% | 26.5% | 41.00 |
| 9 | Martinez Lenny | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 5.8% | 41.9% | 101.00 |
| 10 | Hindley Jai | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 5.0% | 30.9% | 126.00 |
| 11 | Carapaz Richard | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 35.0% | 5.00 |
| 12 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 13.8% | 46.4% | 17.00 |
| 13 | Pidcock Tom | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 6.5% | 49.8% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 41.9% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 5.7% | 19.4% | 251.00 |
| 16 | Gee Derek | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 9.6% | 31.1% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 24.2% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 33.7% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 20.2% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 6.1% | 29.6% | 601.00 |
| 21 | Tejada Harold | 1.0% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 13.7% | 67.00 |
| 22 | McNulty Brandon | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 25.5% | 101.00 |
| 23 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 6.1% | 27.9% | 126.00 |
| 24 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 31.3% | 51.00 |
| 25 | Aranburu Alex | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 10.2% | 1501.00 |
| 26 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 5.3% | 42.8% | 126.00 |
| 27 | Yates Adam | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 19.7% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Higuita Sergio | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 21.9% | 201.00 |
| 29 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 9.9% | 751.00 |
| 30 | Izagirre Ion | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 17.0% | 201.00 |
Angle
The top 10 on GC after stage 13 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Break survives' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 28% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Break survives win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.8% | 6.2% | 126 | 0.5% |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.8% | 6.2% | 5 | 12.5% |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% | 6.0% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.5% | 5.2% | 17 | 3.7% |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.5% | 5.1% | 41 | 1.5% |
| Yates Adam | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.3% | 4.6% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.3% | 4.6% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.1% | 4.0% | 251 | 0.2% |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 0.9% | 3.2% | 51 | 1.2% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 2.8% | 126 | 0.5% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.8% | 2.8% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 2.7% | 126 | 0.5% |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.7% | 2.4% | 601 | 0.1% |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.7% | 2.3% | 151 | 0.4% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 10 on GC after stage 13), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | GC mountain | Reduced group | Break survives | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | 1.55 | 40.4% | 39.1% (#1) | 35.6% (#1) | 39.5% (#1) | GC #1 |
| Carapaz Richard | 5.00 | 12.5% | 1.5% (#11) | 1.7% (#10) | 1.8% (#10) | free |
| del Toro Isaac | 15.00 | 4.2% | 5.7% (#6) | 7.0% (#5) | 5.2% (#6) | GC #8 |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | 17.00 | 3.7% | 1.4% (#12) | 1.5% (#13) | 1.5% (#12) | free |
| Vingegaard Jonas | 21.00 | 3.0% | 10.4% (#3) | 7.8% (#4) | 10.8% (#3) | GC #2 |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | 23.00 | 2.7% | 0.3% (#37) | 0.3% (#40) | 0.3% (#39) | free |
| Evenepoel Remco | 34.00 | 1.8% | 12.0% (#2) | 12.1% (#2) | 11.8% (#2) | GC #3 |
| Seixas Paul | 41.00 | 1.5% | 6.6% (#5) | 8.0% (#3) | 7.0% (#4) | GC #6 |
| Arensman Thymen | 41.00 | 1.5% | 1.6% (#9) | 2.2% (#7) | 1.5% (#13) | free |
| Pidcock Tom | 51.00 | 1.2% | 1.1% (#17) | 1.1% (#18) | 1.2% (#17) | GC #4 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC mountain win p | Reduced group win p | Break survives win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 39.1% | 35.6% | 39.5% | 36.9% |
| 2 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 8.6% |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% |
| 4 | Vingegaard Jonas | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 10.4% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| 5 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.7% |
| 6 | Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% |
| 7 | Lipowitz Florian | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| 10 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC mountain | 39.08% | 40.36% |
| Reduced group | 35.62% | 40.36% |
| Break survives | 39.50% | 40.36% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 36.85% | 40.36% |
Reflection
The road picked the base case, and picked it early. UAE lit the Col du Haag, the front group came apart on the steep middle ramps, and Pogacar went clear alone to take the plateau run-in to Le Markstein by 38 seconds over del Toro and Seixas — a fourth stage win and another chunk of GC time. The break read never got its chance: unlike Belfort yesterday, the escape was pulled back before the Haag and the day resolved exactly as the 'GC mountain' scenario described it. Only seven riders finished within a minute; the non-summit finish that made the reduced-group branch plausible turned out not to matter, because the selection happened 6 km earlier and nobody came back.
On the settled page's raw numbers all three reads look close to the book on the winner — 39.1% (GC mountain), 35.6% (reduced group), 39.5% (break survives) against the book's 40.4% devigged. That comparison flatters us and should not be quoted without the correction: blend_win_p is a set of per-rider marginals, not a distribution, and these boards sum to 114–116%. Renormalized over the field, the GC-mountain read gave Pogacar 34.2% and the book-preserving LambdaRank head 32.8%, both meaningfully below the book's 40.4%. The honest verdict is that we had the right shape of day and the right man on top, but we still would not back him as hard as the market did. That is the same gap the whole Tour has shown on Pogacar.
The hindsight run is the interesting part, because it says course knowledge was NOT the binding constraint here. Rebuilding the day from its actual finish curve — the curve-nearest WorldTour stages since 2021 that a GC captain actually won — produced a slightly more rolling-weighted profile (mountain 0.45 / rolling 0.54) than the pre-race read, because the Haag cresting 6 km out makes this structurally closer to a hard selective stage than a summit finish. With that perfect knowledge the model gave Pogacar 36.9% raw, and only 28.5% renormalized: worse than the read we actually published. Knowing the shape of the day did not help us price the favourite; it spread probability toward all-rounders instead.
What hindsight did fix was the supporting cast. It moved del Toro from 5.7% to 8.6% and Seixas from 6.6% to 9.7% — the two riders who actually took second and third — and its top six were the actual top seven minus Ayuso. So the day-shape signal carries real information about who survives the selection and in what order, and none about how much to concentrate on the strongest rider. Carry that forward as the watch item: the ceiling on Pogacar is structural, not a course-reading failure, and no amount of better reference-picking will close it. It is a probability-concentration limit in the heads themselves, and it belongs with the post-Paris settlement work rather than with the daily reads.