The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC summit 122% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC summit | Climbers' break | Climby-rouleur break | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 40.3% | – | – | – | 5.50 | 11.3% | +29.0pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 12.5% | – | – | – | 23.00 | 2.7% | +9.8pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 10.6% | – | – | – | 67.00 | 0.9% | +9.6pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 9.2% | – | – | – | 12.00 | 5.2% | +4.0pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 3.1% | – | – | – | 201.00 | 0.3% | +2.8pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 3.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 41.00 | 1.5% | +1.6pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 2.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 15.00 | 4.1% | -1.6pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 4.50 | 13.8% | -11.3pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +1.7pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 12.00 | 5.2% | -3.3pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.1pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.7% | – | – | – | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.3pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 26.00 | 2.4% | -0.9pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +1.1pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 17.00 | 3.7% | -2.2pp |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 15.00 | 4.1% | -2.8pp |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.5pp |
| McNulty Brandon | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 51.00 | 1.2% | -0.1pp |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 20.00 | 3.1% | -2.0pp |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.3pp |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 67.00 | 0.9% | +0.1pp |
| Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 26.00 | 2.4% | -2.0pp |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 15.00 | 4.1% | -3.8pp |
| Simmons Quinn | Lidl-Trek | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 13.00 | 4.8% | -4.6pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 40.3% | 47.6% | 31.3% | 72.0% | 86.7% | 5.50 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 12.5% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 26.2% | 62.5% | 23.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 17.4% | 60.6% | 67.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 9.2% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 57.5% | 12.00 |
| 5 | Ayuso Juan | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 8.7% | 49.0% | 201.00 |
| 6 | Martinez Lenny | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 44.6% | 41.00 |
| 7 | Arensman Thymen | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 7.8% | 25.8% | 15.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 41.8% | 4.50 |
| 9 | Hindley Jai | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 7.1% | 35.3% | 126.00 |
| 10 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 27.6% | 12.00 |
| 11 | Gee Derek | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 22.3% | 81.00 |
| 12 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 5.7% | 39.6% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 9.1% | 26.7% | 26.00 |
| 14 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 24.9% | 151.00 |
| 15 | Pidcock Tom | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 8.0% | 60.3% | 17.00 |
| 16 | Kuss Sepp | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 23.3% | 15.00 |
| 17 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 39.3% | 81.00 |
| 18 | McNulty Brandon | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 24.5% | 51.00 |
| 19 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 9.1% | 52.8% | 20.00 |
| 20 | Vauquelin Kévin | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 22.0% | 81.00 |
| 21 | Bernal Egan | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.5% | 29.4% | 67.00 |
| 22 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 28.7% | 201.00 |
| 23 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 26.9% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Jegat Jordan | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 9.2% | 52.7% | 101.00 |
| 25 | Higuita Sergio | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.2% | 22.2% | 301.00 |
| 26 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 4.0% | 18.9% | 67.00 |
| 27 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 13.2% | 151.00 |
| 28 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 3.2% | 17.7% | 301.00 |
| 29 | Foss Tobias | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 12.0% | 401.00 |
| 30 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 17.7% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinez Lenny | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 29.2% | 41.00 |
| 2 | Arensman Thymen | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 7.6% | 24.3% | 15.00 |
| 3 | Carapaz Richard | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 6.7% | 37.1% | 4.50 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 25.3% | 12.00 |
| 5 | Hindley Jai | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 4.9% | 35.7% | 126.00 |
| 6 | Gee Derek | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 20.4% | 81.00 |
| 7 | Pidcock Tom | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 8.5% | 52.6% | 17.00 |
| 8 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 22.3% | 151.00 |
| 9 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 8.7% | 24.1% | 26.00 |
| 10 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 22.8% | 15.00 |
| 11 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 30.3% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 35.5% | 81.00 |
| 13 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 7.6% | 47.7% | 20.00 |
| 14 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 4.1% | 20.7% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Grégoire Romain | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 6.0% | 30.1% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Yates Adam | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 22.6% | 151.00 |
| 17 | McNulty Brandon | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 21.6% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 6.4% | 47.5% | 101.00 |
| 19 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 23.3% | 301.00 |
| 20 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 4.8% | 20.5% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 11.3% | 34.00 |
| 22 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 16.1% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Plapp Lucas | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 15.0% | n/a |
| 24 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 18.8% | 81.00 |
| 25 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 12.2% | 401.00 |
| 26 | Tejada Harold | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 19.0% | 81.00 |
| 27 | Baudin Alex | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 14.8% | 126.00 |
| 28 | Foss Tobias | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 12.4% | 401.00 |
| 29 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 4.9% | 13.9% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 14.5% | 126.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arensman Thymen | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 22.5% | 15.00 |
| 2 | Martinez Lenny | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 22.8% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.8% | 5.8% | 1.2% | 10.1% | 35.8% | 151.00 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 23.9% | 12.00 |
| 5 | Hindley Jai | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 22.3% | 126.00 |
| 6 | Pidcock Tom | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 9.3% | 46.0% | 17.00 |
| 7 | Gee Derek | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 17.4% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 5.3% | 29.4% | 4.50 |
| 9 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 19.5% | 15.00 |
| 10 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 30.8% | 81.00 |
| 11 | Grégoire Romain | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 6.2% | 28.2% | 201.00 |
| 12 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 15.2% | 26.00 |
| 13 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 5.8% | 39.8% | 20.00 |
| 14 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 4.0% | 21.0% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Bernal Egan | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 26.4% | 67.00 |
| 16 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 7.8% | 19.4% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 6.9% | 39.9% | 101.00 |
| 18 | Yates Adam | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 21.4% | 151.00 |
| 19 | McNulty Brandon | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 20.6% | 51.00 |
| 20 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.1% | 22.5% | 301.00 |
| 21 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 19.8% | 67.00 |
| 22 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 12.2% | 34.00 |
| 23 | Aranburu Alex | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 13.5% | 751.00 |
| 24 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 15.1% | 301.00 |
| 25 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 18.3% | 81.00 |
| 26 | Storer Michael | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 24.9% | 81.00 |
| 27 | Pedersen Mads | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 601.00 |
| 28 | Baudin Alex | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 18.0% | 126.00 |
| 29 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 10.8% | 51.00 |
| 30 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 13.8% | 401.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinez Lenny | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 6.4% | 46.5% | 41.00 |
| 2 | Carapaz Richard | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 7.4% | 44.3% | 4.50 |
| 3 | Hindley Jai | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 5.6% | 34.4% | 126.00 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 29.0% | 12.00 |
| 5 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.9% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 9.1% | 44.8% | 151.00 |
| 6 | Arensman Thymen | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 25.3% | 15.00 |
| 7 | Gee Derek | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 26.1% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Bernal Egan | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 33.1% | 67.00 |
| 9 | Pidcock Tom | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 9.5% | 59.1% | 17.00 |
| 10 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 19.2% | 26.00 |
| 11 | Kuss Sepp | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.1% | 24.8% | 15.00 |
| 12 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 26.0% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 42.9% | 81.00 |
| 14 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 7.8% | 52.9% | 20.00 |
| 15 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 31.5% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 4.7% | 24.6% | 81.00 |
| 17 | McNulty Brandon | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 23.5% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 5.6% | 24.8% | 301.00 |
| 19 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 7.0% | 51.3% | 101.00 |
| 20 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 4.6% | 22.3% | 67.00 |
| 21 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 6.0% | 13.6% | 151.00 |
| 22 | O'Connor Ben | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 21.1% | 81.00 |
| 23 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 10.5% | 34.00 |
| 24 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 12.1% | 401.00 |
| 25 | Van Eetvelt Lennert | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 15.6% | 126.00 |
| 26 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 17.2% | 301.00 |
| 27 | Verona Carlos | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 301.00 |
| 28 | Storer Michael | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 14.4% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Schmid Mauro | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 10.5% | 26.00 |
| 30 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 15.4% | 126.00 |
Angle
The top 6 on GC after stage 17 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Climbers' break' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 32% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Climbers' break win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.1% | 6.3% | 41 | 1.5% |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 2.0% | 6.1% | 15 | 4.1% |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.7% | 5.1% | 4 | 13.8% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.6% | 4.9% | 12 | 5.2% |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.4% | 4.4% | 126 | 0.5% |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | 4.0% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.2% | 3.7% | 17 | 3.7% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.2% | 3.6% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.0% | 3.2% | 26 | 2.4% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.9% | 2.8% | 15 | 4.1% |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 0.9% | 2.8% | 67 | 0.9% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.9% | 2.7% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 2.5% | 20 | 3.1% |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.7% | 2.2% | 81 | 0.8% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 6 on GC after stage 17), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | GC summit | Climbers' break | Climby-rouleur break | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carapaz Richard | 4.50 | 13.8% | 2.5% (#8) | 1.7% (#8) | 1.1% (#14) | free |
| Pogacar Tadej | 5.50 | 11.3% | 40.3% (#1) | 26.5% (#1) | 25.3% (#1) | GC #1 |
| del Toro Isaac | 12.00 | 5.2% | 9.2% (#4) | 5.3% (#4) | 6.3% (#4) | GC #3 |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | 12.00 | 5.2% | 1.9% (#10) | 1.6% (#9) | 1.3% (#9) | free |
| Simmons Quinn | 13.00 | 4.8% | 0.1% (#64) | 0.1% (#69) | 0.1% (#71) | free |
| Arensman Thymen | 15.00 | 4.1% | 2.6% (#7) | 2.0% (#6) | 1.8% (#6) | free |
| Kuss Sepp | 15.00 | 4.1% | 1.3% (#16) | 0.9% (#16) | 0.9% (#15) | free |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | 15.00 | 4.1% | 0.4% (#41) | 0.3% (#39) | 0.3% (#42) | free |
| Pidcock Tom | 17.00 | 3.7% | 1.5% (#15) | 1.2% (#12) | 1.2% (#12) | free |
| Piganzoli Davide | 20.00 | 3.1% | 1.1% (#19) | 0.8% (#19) | 0.8% (#19) | free |
Angle
The reason to run a climby-rouleur read at all: on 5-7% tempo grades a powerful classics engine can win from the break, and the book backs several. But the model needs a high-mountain signature to seat a rider on a summit, so it mostly cannot see them — it re-sorts within the climbers instead. Probability is under the climby-rouleur read (top-6 GC removed, renormalised over the pool). The honest edge of the day lives where the two disagree: the book's Simmons and Schmid, whom the model buries, against the model's Vauquelin and Grégoire, whom the book ignores. Healy, Van Gils and Storer are the rare names both sides half-believe.
| Rider | Team | Climby-rouleur pool p | Pool rank | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simmons Quinn | Lidl-Trek | 0.2% | #65 | 13.00 | 4.8% |
| Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.9% | #35 | 26.00 | 2.4% |
| Healy Ben | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.5% | #22 | 34.00 | 1.8% |
| Van Gils Maxim | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.1% | #29 | 51.00 | 1.2% |
| Storer Michael | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 1.2% | #26 | 81.00 | 0.8% |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 2.1% | #14 | 81.00 | 0.8% |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 2.6% | #11 | 201.00 | 0.3% |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC summit win p | Climbers' break win p | Climby-rouleur break win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 2 | Schmid Mauro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| 4 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| 6 | García Raúl | Movistar Team | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Castrillo Pablo | Movistar Team | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 8 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| 9 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 12.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 12.7% |
| 10 | Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC summit | 2.53% | 13.80% |
| Climbers' break | 1.66% | 13.80% |
| Climby-rouleur break | 1.12% | 13.80% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 2.25% | 13.80% |
Reflection
The road picked the climbers' break, emphatically. A strong escape went clear on the first Alpine day and the GC teams let it live: Richard Carapaz soloed to Orcières-Merlette 45 seconds ahead of Mauro Schmid and Matteo Jorgenson, with Valentin Paret-Peintre fourth and Johannessen fifth, while the maillot-jaune group rolled in together at 4:35 — Pogačar thirteenth, GC frozen from first to ninth, and Carapaz vaulting to tenth overall at 21 minutes. The gap curve (one rider within two minutes of the next, 34 within ten) is a pure solo-shatter day.
On the winner, the book beat us — and beat us on concentration, not branch. Our climbers'-break read was the right branch, and Carapaz was on its card: 1.7% raw (#8), 5.1% in the conditional if-the-break-wins column. But the book had him at 13.8% devig as its outright favourite, and it was right to be so concentrated. Our pool spread its mass across climbers ranked by fitness-for-the-day — conditional leaders Lenny Martinez (6.3%) and Arensman (6.1%) — and neither made the break: Martinez rode in with the GC group, Arensman finished 48th, Kuss 44th. The book also had Paret-Peintre (4.1% vs our 0.3%) — fourth on the day. What the book is pricing and we structurally cannot is break INTENT: EF's commitment to the stage, Carapaz's mountains-jersey hunt. Break formation remains invisible to a rider-course-fit model.
The rouleur question — flagged pre-race as a live prospective test — settled mostly for the model, with one expensive exception. Six of the seven names in that analysis block finished 25th or worse: Simmons, the book's 4.8% climby-rouleur, was 25th; Van Gils 27th, Grégoire 39th, Storer 57th, Healy 60th, Vauquelin 69th. The model's refusal to seat a classics engine on a summit was right about the win — a pure climber took it. The exception: Mauro Schmid, buried at 0.3% (#38-41 on every read) against the book's 26.0, rode to second at 45 seconds, and Jorgenson — a rouleur-shaped man the model does see because he carries a mountain signature — was third. On tempo grades the type can contend; it just couldn't beat a featherweight to the line. Half a point to each side, and the model's half was the winner-relevant half.
The hindsight run closes the loop the same way stages 9 and 17 did: fed the five nearest gap-curve neighbours (three solo break-climber wins, two GC-star solos — profile rolling 0.52 / mountain 0.48, nearly identical to the pre-race break read), the model still makes Pogačar 44.4% and gives Carapaz 2.3%. Course knowledge was not the constraint — the pre-race climbers' read already had the day's shape right. The constraint is structural: on a break day the model prices who is strongest on the terrain, and the answer to a break day is who is IN the break. Carry-forward watch item: the book's break-day concentration is intent information we don't ingest — Carapaz opens as 4.5 favourite again for Alpe d'Huez tomorrow. Candidate for the post-Paris GT-hard-day work: a presentation-layer break-intent prior seeded from the book's own card.