The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC finale 111%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 112% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC finale | Climbers' break | Hard-man break | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 44.2% | – | – | 42.4% | 2.50 | 25.2% | +18.9pp |
| Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 11.8% | – | – | 10.5% | 13.00 | 4.9% | +7.0pp |
| Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 10.7% | – | – | 9.1% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +9.4pp |
| del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.2% | – | – | 8.5% | 15.00 | 4.2% | +4.3pp |
| Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.8% | – | – | 2.8% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +1.0pp |
| Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 2.7% | – | – | 2.4% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +2.1pp |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +0.3pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 23.4% | -21.4pp |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.2pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.1pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 34.00 | 1.9% | -0.1pp |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 15.00 | 4.2% | -2.5pp |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.9pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | – | – | 1.3% | 34.00 | 1.9% | -0.5pp |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.4pp |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 6.50 | 9.7% | -8.5pp |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1001.00 | 0.1% | +1.0pp |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 67.00 | 0.9% | +0.1pp |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.6pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 44.2% | 38.1% | 41.2% | 73.2% | 88.3% | 2.50 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 11.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 33.1% | 75.0% | 13.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 24.2% | 73.6% | 51.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 6.2% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 14.0% | 67.7% | 15.00 |
| 5 | Martinez Lenny | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 9.0% | 62.5% | 34.00 |
| 6 | Ayuso Juan | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 8.4% | 56.5% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Carapaz Richard | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 8.3% | 70.0% | 2.70 |
| 8 | Hindley Jai | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 38.1% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 35.1% | 34.00 |
| 10 | Pidcock Tom | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 5.9% | 50.3% | 15.00 |
| 11 | Arensman Thymen | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 6.7% | 26.7% | 34.00 |
| 12 | Gee Derek | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 24.8% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 7.3% | 58.0% | 34.00 |
| 14 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.2% | 31.2% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 10.6% | 27.9% | 81.00 |
| 16 | Kuss Sepp | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 36.2% | 6.50 |
| 17 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 5.1% | 20.3% | 501.00 |
| 18 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.7% | 39.6% | 51.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 5.4% | 35.5% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Yates Adam | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 32.5% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 6.8% | 24.3% | 1001.00 |
| 22 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 44.8% | 67.00 |
| 23 | Jegat Jordan | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 8.5% | 58.3% | 201.00 |
| 24 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 9.7% | 17.2% | 2001.00 |
| 25 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 18.2% | 151.00 |
| 26 | Healy Ben | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 8.9% | 301.00 |
| 27 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 24.4% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 18.2% | 201.00 |
| 29 | Voisard Yannis | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 32.1% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 10.2% | 601.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carapaz Richard | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 55.9% | 2.70 |
| 2 | Arensman Thymen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 7.3% | 26.6% | 34.00 |
| 3 | Hindley Jai | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 32.8% | 101.00 |
| 4 | Pidcock Tom | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 12.2% | 64.3% | 15.00 |
| 5 | Gee Derek | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 5.5% | 22.8% | 101.00 |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 31.8% | 34.00 |
| 7 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 28.3% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Kuss Sepp | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 28.4% | 6.50 |
| 9 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 17.0% | 81.00 |
| 10 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 4.4% | 21.5% | 501.00 |
| 11 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 36.6% | 151.00 |
| 12 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 5.7% | 27.8% | 1001.00 |
| 13 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 6.3% | 47.7% | 67.00 |
| 14 | Bernal Egan | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 35.2% | 51.00 |
| 15 | Yates Adam | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 27.7% | 67.00 |
| 16 | Jegat Jordan | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 6.7% | 50.7% | 201.00 |
| 17 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 7.5% | 16.3% | 2001.00 |
| 18 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 20.9% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 4.1% | 20.4% | 201.00 |
| 20 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 17.8% | 251.00 |
| 21 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 19.0% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 8.5% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Foss Tobias | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 12.3% | 601.00 |
| 24 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 13.1% | 401.00 |
| 25 | Tejada Harold | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 14.2% | 81.00 |
| 26 | Storer Michael | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 12.7% | 201.00 |
| 27 | Braz Afonso Clément | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 12.9% | 401.00 |
| 28 | Schmid Mauro | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 13.1% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Voisard Yannis | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 26.1% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 11.3% | 301.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arensman Thymen | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 6.4% | 23.6% | 34.00 |
| 2 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.5% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 9.4% | 37.9% | 81.00 |
| 3 | Pidcock Tom | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 12.1% | 50.5% | 15.00 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 27.6% | 34.00 |
| 5 | Hindley Jai | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 30.4% | 101.00 |
| 6 | Gee Derek | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 16.6% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Carapaz Richard | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 7.5% | 45.1% | 2.70 |
| 8 | Jorgenson Matteo | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 15.6% | 81.00 |
| 9 | Kuss Sepp | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 5.4% | 23.2% | 6.50 |
| 10 | Grégoire Romain | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 6.1% | 28.1% | 1001.00 |
| 11 | Van Wilder Ilan | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 19.7% | 151.00 |
| 12 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 5.6% | 41.8% | 67.00 |
| 13 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 12.6% | 26.0% | 2001.00 |
| 14 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 20.4% | 501.00 |
| 15 | Jegat Jordan | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 6.3% | 39.2% | 201.00 |
| 16 | Bernal Egan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 29.8% | 51.00 |
| 17 | Yates Adam | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 21.4% | 67.00 |
| 18 | Higuita Sergio | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 21.9% | 151.00 |
| 19 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 20.2% | 201.00 |
| 20 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 16.5% | 601.00 |
| 21 | Izagirre Ion | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 17.0% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Aranburu Alex | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 14.0% | 2001.00 |
| 23 | Healy Ben | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 11.8% | 301.00 |
| 24 | O'Connor Ben | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 18.8% | 101.00 |
| 25 | Van Gils Maxim | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 11.6% | 301.00 |
| 26 | Quinn Sean | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 11.4% | 1001.00 |
| 27 | Baudin Alex | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 16.1% | 401.00 |
| 28 | Tejada Harold | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 21.1% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Pedersen Mads | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 2001.00 |
| 30 | Schmid Mauro | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 13.9% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 42.4% | 40.0% | 38.4% | 74.5% | 88.4% | 2.50 |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 32.1% | 73.4% | 13.00 |
| 3 | Seixas Paul | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 19.3% | 66.8% | 51.00 |
| 4 | del Toro Isaac | 8.5% | 3.3% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 69.0% | 15.00 |
| 5 | Martinez Lenny | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 64.4% | 34.00 |
| 6 | Ayuso Juan | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 50.5% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Arensman Thymen | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 25.7% | 34.00 |
| 8 | Carapaz Richard | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 9.1% | 67.5% | 2.70 |
| 9 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 7.7% | 36.3% | 81.00 |
| 10 | Hindley Jai | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 32.4% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Pidcock Tom | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 5.8% | 48.3% | 15.00 |
| 12 | Gee Derek | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 20.2% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 6.9% | 55.7% | 34.00 |
| 14 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 7.8% | 47.8% | 34.00 |
| 15 | Jorgenson Matteo | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 17.4% | 81.00 |
| 16 | Kuss Sepp | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 6.4% | 28.7% | 6.50 |
| 17 | Grégoire Romain | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 6.4% | 26.8% | 1001.00 |
| 18 | Piganzoli Davide | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 7.5% | 46.6% | 67.00 |
| 19 | Van Wilder Ilan | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 33.4% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Bernal Egan | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 34.6% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Jegat Jordan | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 6.4% | 47.6% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Vauquelin Kévin | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 21.4% | 501.00 |
| 23 | Yates Adam | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 25.8% | 67.00 |
| 24 | Higuita Sergio | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 22.8% | 151.00 |
| 25 | van der Poel Mathieu | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 8.8% | 18.9% | 2001.00 |
| 26 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 19.7% | 201.00 |
| 27 | Izagirre Ion | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 18.6% | 251.00 |
| 28 | Tejada Harold | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 13.9% | 81.00 |
| 29 | O'Connor Ben | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 17.5% | 101.00 |
| 30 | Foss Tobias | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 11.8% | 601.00 |
Angle
The top 7 on GC after stage 19 removed — everyone below that is far enough back to be given freedom. Remaining riders under the 'Climbers' break' read; the conditional column renormalizes their win probability over this pool (P(win | a non-GC rider wins), pool holds 31% of the unconditional book). The model can't see who actually makes the break — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Climbers' break win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.1% | 6.7% | 3 | 23.4% |
| Arensman Thymen | Netcompany INEOS | 1.8% | 5.8% | 34 | 1.9% |
| Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.7% | 5.4% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Pidcock Tom | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 1.6% | 5.1% | 15 | 4.2% |
| Gee Derek | Lidl-Trek | 1.5% | 5.0% | 101 | 0.6% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.5% | 4.9% | 34 | 1.9% |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.2% | 3.8% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.0% | 3.2% | 6 | 9.7% |
| Jorgenson Matteo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.9% | 2.9% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Vauquelin Kévin | Netcompany INEOS | 0.9% | 2.8% | 501 | 0.1% |
| Van Wilder Ilan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.8% | 2.7% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Grégoire Romain | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.8% | 2.7% | 1001 | 0.1% |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.8% | 2.6% | 67 | 0.9% |
| Bernal Egan | Netcompany INEOS | 0.8% | 2.6% | 51 | 1.2% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 7 on GC after stage 19), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | GC finale | Climbers' break | Hard-man break | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | 2.50 | 25.2% | 44.2% (#1) | 33.8% (#1) | 24.2% (#1) | GC #1 |
| Carapaz Richard | 2.70 | 23.4% | 1.9% (#7) | 2.1% (#6) | 0.9% (#14) | free |
| Kuss Sepp | 6.50 | 9.7% | 1.1% (#16) | 1.0% (#15) | 0.8% (#16) | free |
| Evenepoel Remco | 13.00 | 4.9% | 11.8% (#2) | 8.9% (#3) | 6.4% (#3) | GC #2 |
| del Toro Isaac | 15.00 | 4.2% | 6.2% (#4) | 5.7% (#4) | 5.8% (#4) | GC #3 |
| Pidcock Tom | 15.00 | 4.2% | 1.6% (#10) | 1.6% (#10) | 1.3% (#9) | free |
| Martinez Lenny | 34.00 | 1.9% | 2.8% (#5) | 2.7% (#5) | 1.9% (#5) | GC #5 |
| Arensman Thymen | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.6% (#11) | 1.8% (#8) | 1.6% (#7) | free |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.8% (#9) | 1.5% (#12) | 1.1% (#10) | free |
| Skjelmose Mattias | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.3% (#13) | 1.0% (#14) | 1.0% (#12) | GC #6 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC finale win p | Climbers' break win p | Hard-man break win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% |
| 2 | Evenepoel Remco | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 11.8% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 10.5% |
| 3 | Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| 4 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 44.2% | 33.8% | 24.2% | 42.4% |
| 5 | del Toro Isaac | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% |
| 6 | Martinez Lenny | Bahrain Victorious | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% |
| 7 | Hindley Jai | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 8 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 9 | Ayuso Juan | Lidl-Trek | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 10 | Seixas Paul | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC finale | 1.93% | 23.35% |
| Climbers' break | 2.08% | 23.35% |
| Hard-man break | 0.91% | 23.35% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 1.95% | 23.35% |
Reflection
The road picked the climbers'-break branch and then made the GC group race anyway. Richard Carapaz went with the escape, dropped it on the Sarenne and soloed to Alpe d'Huez to win by 26 seconds from Remco Evenepoel, who had attacked out of the maillot-jaune group and came across most of the gap; Sepp Kuss took third at 31 seconds, with Pogačar and del Toro at 1:05 and Lenny Martinez at 1:07. The finish curve was the second most selective of the Tour — one rider at zero, two inside thirty seconds, three inside a minute, six inside two, eighteen inside ten. Nothing moved in the GC order: Evenepoel's 45 seconds cut Pogačar's lead from 7:11 to 6:26, del Toro held third by finishing on the leader's wheel, and the 24-second podium fight with Seixas became 2:14 when Seixas, Skjelmose and Ayuso all came in with the 2:55 group. The podium and the jersey are both settled going to Paris.
On the outright the model lost, and the honest number is worse than the page's table suggests in one direction and better in the other. Every read priced Carapaz around two per cent — 1.93% raw on the GC finale, 2.08% on the climbers' break, 0.91% on the rouleur read — against a devigged book of 23.4%. Renormalising over the field (the climbers' board carries blend mass 0.953, so it barely moves) gives 2.18%, still an order of magnitude under the market. That gap is not a terrain error. The book had Carapaz at 2.70 because he had been in the escape on each of the previous two days and because UAE had nothing left to chase for; those are break-formation and team-intent facts the model does not represent. Where the model did have an edge it collected: the GC finale read had Evenepoel #2 at 10.6% renormalised against a book devig of 4.9%, and he finished second.
The conditional break pool is the day's real result, and it is now two-for-two. Of the fourteen free riders — the top seven on actual standings removed, the cut placed at the 5:17 cliff between Ayuso and Carapaz — the model's #1 was Carapaz at 6.7% P(win | break wins), and he won. Its #3 Hindley finished seventh, #6 Johannessen eleventh, #7 Riccitello twelfth; only #2 Arensman (23rd) and #4 Pidcock (16th) badly missed, and Kuss, buried at #8 in the pool, finished third. The standings-source cut mattered directly here: Carapaz sat eighth on the road at +21:15 and was freed by it, where the old model-blend pool ordering had been putting the wrong men in prison as recently as stage 10. Read together with stage 19 — pool #1 Martinez finishing second and best of the non-Pogačar riders — the block is doing what the outright board structurally cannot.
The hindsight run settles the question the series was asking. Fed the five DB stages whose finish curves match today's almost exactly (Pogačar at Isola 2000, Bernal to Cortina, Bardet's Vuelta stage 14, O'Connor at Courchevel, Vingegaard's Giro 16 — rolling 0.51 / mountain 0.49), the model gave Carapaz 1.74% renormalised: lower than the climbers'-break read it already had. Perfect course knowledge would not have moved him. The ceiling on a break winner is not terrain typing, it is that the model prices rider-course fit over the whole field and a 33-year-old climber eighth on GC is genuinely the seventh-best fit on this mountain — the thing that made him 2.70 in the market was who was allowed up the road, which is invisible to the features. This is the GT hard-day design hole appearing on a mountain day rather than a shattered flat one, and it belongs in the post-Paris corpus as such.
The three-stage rouleur experiment closes with the model ahead. Stages 18, 19 and 20 ran identical hard-man references while the terrain relaxed underneath them, and the prospective question named yesterday — what if Pidcock or Simmons wins on a finish that eases at the top? — got a clean negative answer: Pidcock 16th at 9:03, Simmons 19th, Adam Yates 37th, Bernal 39th, Schmid 53rd, with the book's overnight re-pricing of exactly those names (Pidcock 51 → 15, Bernal 126 → 51) comprehensively wrong. Five thousand four hundred and fifty metres of climbing selects on climbing regardless of how the last three kilometres are shaped, and the model's refusal to seat a classics engine without a mountain signature was right all three times. Carry to Paris: the outright board's blind spot is break membership, not gradient.