The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 103% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 22.3% | n/a | – | – |
| L'Hote Antoine | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 11.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 8.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 6.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Bagioli Andrea | Lidl-Trek | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Arrieta Igor | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 3.3% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Politt Nils | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 2.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Vercher Mattéo | Team TotalEnergies | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Pericas Adria | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Mariault Axel | CIC Pro Cycling Academy | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Thierry Pierre | Team TotalEnergies | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Gachignard Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Graat Tijmen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Thonnon Senne | Team Flanders-Baloise | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Mollema Bauke | Lidl-Trek | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Silva Pedro | Feira dos Sofás - Boavista | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | 22.3% | 31.9% | 19.4% | 51.0% | 72.6% | n/a |
| 2 | L'Hote Antoine | 11.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 23.7% | 61.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Stuyven Jasper | 8.4% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 21.6% | 63.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 6.7% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 53.7% | n/a |
| 5 | Bagioli Andrea | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 17.3% | 49.0% | n/a |
| 6 | Piganzoli Davide | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 42.2% | n/a |
| 7 | Arrieta Igor | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 8.0% | 48.7% | n/a |
| 8 | van den Berg Marijn | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 8.4% | 40.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Nerurkar Lukas | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 7.0% | 47.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 7.9% | 41.6% | n/a |
| 11 | Politt Nils | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 10.9% | 41.1% | n/a |
| 12 | Breuillard Nicolas | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 6.3% | 31.2% | n/a |
| 13 | Honore Mikkel | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 9.8% | 40.0% | n/a |
| 14 | Vercher Mattéo | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 8.6% | 42.9% | n/a |
| 15 | Pericas Adria | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 6.7% | 31.5% | n/a |
| 16 | Mariault Axel | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 42.6% | n/a |
| 17 | Thierry Pierre | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 5.7% | 33.9% | n/a |
| 18 | Gachignard Thomas | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 5.3% | 32.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Gautherat Pierre | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 24.0% | n/a |
| 20 | Graat Tijmen | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 26.1% | n/a |
| 21 | Thonnon Senne | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 27.7% | n/a |
| 22 | Mollema Bauke | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 18.3% | n/a |
| 23 | Silva Pedro | 1.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 38.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Remijn Senna | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 32.3% | n/a |
| 25 | Hagenes Per Strand | 1.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 32.1% | n/a |
| 26 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 18.0% | n/a |
| 27 | Oomen Sam | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 13.0% | n/a |
| 28 | Domínguez David | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 5.6% | 25.6% | n/a |
| 29 | Verstrynge Emiel | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 9.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Ramsay Noah | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 15.6% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 22.3% |
| 2 | Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.4% |
| 3 | van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.0% |
| 4 | Hagenes Per Strand | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.0% |
| 5 | Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 8.4% |
| 6 | Mariault Axel | CIC Pro Cycling Academy | 1.8% |
| 7 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 6.7% |
| 8 | Vercher Mattéo | Team TotalEnergies | 1.9% |
| 9 | Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 2.4% |
| 10 | Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 3.4% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 22.34% | – |