The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 100% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 41.0% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 9.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 9.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 8.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 7.9% | n/a | – | – |
| L'Hote Antoine | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Remijn Senna | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Kockelmann Mathieu | Luxembourg | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Bagioli Andrea | Lidl-Trek | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | 41.0% | 41.1% | 40.9% | 60.7% | 74.3% | n/a |
| 2 | van den Berg Marijn | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 29.3% | 62.9% | n/a |
| 3 | Stuyven Jasper | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 26.8% | 69.6% | n/a |
| 4 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 8.7% | 5.1% | 9.5% | 21.9% | 66.2% | n/a |
| 5 | Gautherat Pierre | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 28.2% | 59.0% | n/a |
| 6 | L'Hote Antoine | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 38.4% | n/a |
| 7 | Remijn Senna | 2.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 16.0% | n/a |
| 8 | Kockelmann Mathieu | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 6.1% | 27.1% | n/a |
| 9 | Nerurkar Lukas | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 36.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Bagioli Andrea | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 7.4% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 11 | Vezie Maxime | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 33.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Mariault Axel | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 5.2% | 46.3% | n/a |
| 13 | Vercher Mattéo | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 6.1% | 47.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Honore Mikkel | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 4.8% | 29.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Breuillard Nicolas | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 32.7% | n/a |
| 16 | Thierry Pierre | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 11.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Hagenes Per Strand | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 7.3% | 39.1% | n/a |
| 18 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 24.7% | n/a |
| 19 | Piganzoli Davide | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 23.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Reinderink Pepijn | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 12.4% | n/a |
| 21 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 32.7% | n/a |
| 22 | Baroncini Filippo | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 4.0% | 18.7% | n/a |
| 23 | Agricola Danijel | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 16.5% | n/a |
| 24 | Politt Nils | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 9.2% | n/a |
| 25 | Gachignard Thomas | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 15.1% | n/a |
| 26 | Zemke Jermaine | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 25.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Thonnon Senne | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 28.9% | n/a |
| 28 | Rottmann Jonathan Malte | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 9.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Lozouet Léandre | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 23.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Kielich Timo | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 11.1% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 9.7% |
| 2 | Kielich Timo | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.3% |
| 3 | Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 7.9% |
| 4 | Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 9.2% |
| 5 | van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 41.0% |
| 6 | Bagioli Andrea | Lidl-Trek | 1.1% |
| 7 | Maris Elias | Team Flanders-Baloise | 0.1% |
| 8 | Behrens Eike | Team Lotto-Kern Haus Outlet Montabaur | 0.1% |
| 9 | Lozouet Léandre | CIC Pro Cycling Academy | 0.3% |
| 10 | Kockelmann Mathieu | Luxembourg | 1.8% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 9.67% | – |