The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 115% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 24.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 17.9% | n/a | – | – |
| L'Hote Antoine | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 9.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Arrieta Igor | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Bagioli Andrea | Lidl-Trek | 4.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Pericas Adria | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 4.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Mariault Axel | CIC Pro Cycling Academy | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Vercher Mattéo | Team TotalEnergies | 2.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Politt Nils | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Gachignard Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Kragh Andersen Søren | Lidl-Trek | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Hagenes Per Strand | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Graat Tijmen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Mollema Bauke | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Thierry Pierre | Team TotalEnergies | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | 24.6% | 35.9% | 18.5% | 55.3% | 76.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Piganzoli Davide | 17.9% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 32.7% | 78.5% | n/a |
| 3 | L'Hote Antoine | 9.3% | 4.6% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 45.2% | n/a |
| 4 | Arrieta Igor | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 21.4% | 74.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Bagioli Andrea | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 17.1% | 48.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Pericas Adria | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 14.9% | 60.3% | n/a |
| 7 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 12.6% | 56.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Nerurkar Lukas | 3.9% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 9 | Breuillard Nicolas | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 10.9% | 59.7% | n/a |
| 10 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 48.2% | n/a |
| 11 | Stuyven Jasper | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 14.0% | 56.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Mariault Axel | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 7.7% | 58.2% | n/a |
| 13 | Vercher Mattéo | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 8.4% | 54.5% | n/a |
| 14 | Honore Mikkel | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 7.4% | 38.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Politt Nils | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 30.8% | n/a |
| 16 | Gachignard Thomas | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 6.9% | 50.4% | n/a |
| 17 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 7.6% | 40.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Hagenes Per Strand | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 10.6% | 49.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Gautherat Pierre | 1.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 9.1% | 38.3% | n/a |
| 20 | Graat Tijmen | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 5.9% | 55.5% | n/a |
| 21 | Mollema Bauke | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 10.1% | n/a |
| 22 | van den Berg Marijn | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.9% | 26.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Thierry Pierre | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Silva Pedro | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 17.0% | n/a |
| 25 | Thonnon Senne | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 41.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Baroncini Filippo | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 4.0% | 17.6% | n/a |
| 27 | Oomen Sam | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 22.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Reinderink Pepijn | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 29 | Remijn Senna | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 8.7% | n/a |
| 30 | Domínguez David | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 24.6% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinderink Pepijn | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.7% |
| 2 | Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 17.9% |
| 3 | Gachignard Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 1.6% |
| 4 | Vercher Mattéo | Team TotalEnergies | 2.0% |
| 5 | Arrieta Igor | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.5% |
| 6 | Oomen Sam | Lidl-Trek | 0.7% |
| 7 | Behrens Eike | Team Lotto-Kern Haus Outlet Montabaur | 0.0% |
| 8 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 4.1% |
| 9 | Graat Tijmen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.4% |
| 10 | Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.9% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.70% | – |