The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 94% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 23.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Johansen Julius | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 9.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 7.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Politt Nils | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 6.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 5.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Thierry Pierre | Team TotalEnergies | 5.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Kragh Andersen Søren | Lidl-Trek | 5.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Reinderink Pepijn | Soudal Quick-Step | 4.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Guernalec Thibault | Team TotalEnergies | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Gachignard Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 2.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| L'Hote Antoine | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Hagenes Per Strand | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Lanhove Milan | Team Flanders-Baloise | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Baroncini Filippo | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.4% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | 23.4% | 32.9% | 22.5% | 57.7% | 83.8% | n/a |
| 2 | Johansen Julius | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 22.5% | 76.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 18.5% | 74.9% | n/a |
| 4 | Politt Nils | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 22.1% | 72.3% | n/a |
| 5 | Piganzoli Davide | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 21.4% | 82.1% | n/a |
| 6 | Thierry Pierre | 5.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 14.1% | 60.9% | n/a |
| 7 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 19.0% | 70.3% | n/a |
| 8 | Reinderink Pepijn | 4.2% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 12.5% | 71.1% | n/a |
| 9 | Guernalec Thibault | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 12.3% | 59.0% | n/a |
| 10 | Gachignard Thomas | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 13.5% | 71.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Gautherat Pierre | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 11.0% | 43.7% | n/a |
| 12 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 9.9% | 69.0% | n/a |
| 13 | L'Hote Antoine | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 8.8% | 49.6% | n/a |
| 14 | Hagenes Per Strand | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 7.0% | 37.5% | n/a |
| 15 | Lanhove Milan | 1.8% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 46.4% | n/a |
| 16 | Baroncini Filippo | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 6.8% | 36.1% | n/a |
| 17 | Hayter Leo | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 29.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Thonnon Senne | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 34.8% | n/a |
| 19 | Honore Mikkel | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 20.8% | n/a |
| 20 | van Baarle Dylan | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 9.0% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 21 | Kockelmann Mathieu | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 18.3% | n/a |
| 22 | Geoghegan Hart Tao | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 30.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Walker Max | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 24.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Stuyven Jasper | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 19.7% | n/a |
| 25 | Servranckx Gauthier | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 41.1% | n/a |
| 26 | van den Berg Marijn | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 23.9% | n/a |
| 27 | Bagioli Andrea | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 12.7% | n/a |
| 28 | Oomen Sam | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 27.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Mollema Bauke | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 10.2% | n/a |
| 30 | Breuillard Nicolas | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 10.1% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 5.7% |
| 2 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 7.3% |
| 3 | Hayter Leo | Modern Adventure Pro Cycling | 1.0% |
| 4 | Johansen Julius | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 9.6% |
| 5 | Kragh Andersen Søren | Lidl-Trek | 5.1% |
| 6 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.1% |
| 7 | Verstrynge Emiel | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.1% |
| 8 | van Baarle Dylan | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.5% |
| 9 | Heidemann Miguel | REMBE | rad-net | 0.1% |
| 10 | Guernalec Thibault | Team TotalEnergies | 3.4% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 5.71% | – |