The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Main read 89%, Alt: res_4 98% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Main read | Alt: res_4 | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 16.8% | 30.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 17.8% | 13.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Arrieta Igor | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 9.7% | 5.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Breuillard Nicolas | Team TotalEnergies | 4.2% | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Stuyven Jasper | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.6% | 4.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Bagioli Andrea | Lidl-Trek | 3.6% | 2.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.4% | 3.1% | n/a | – | – |
| van den Berg Marijn | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.3% | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.5% | 3.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Raccagni Noviero Andrea | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.9% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Gautherat Pierre | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.4% | 2.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Gachignard Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 2.3% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| L'Hote Antoine | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.0% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Hagenes Per Strand | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.9% | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Vercher Mattéo | Team TotalEnergies | 1.6% | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Mariault Axel | CIC Pro Cycling Academy | 1.6% | 1.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Politt Nils | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.5% | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Graat Tijmen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.5% | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.9% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Kragh Andersen Søren | Lidl-Trek | 0.8% | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piganzoli Davide | 17.8% | 12.0% | 21.5% | 37.1% | 86.0% | n/a |
| 2 | van der Poel Mathieu | 16.8% | 21.6% | 17.7% | 32.8% | 49.1% | n/a |
| 3 | Arrieta Igor | 9.7% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 28.0% | 85.0% | n/a |
| 4 | Breuillard Nicolas | 4.2% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 35.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Bagioli Andrea | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 9.0% | 28.5% | n/a |
| 6 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 14.3% | 78.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Honore Mikkel | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 21.8% | n/a |
| 8 | Gachignard Thomas | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 11.5% | 66.8% | n/a |
| 9 | van den Berg Marijn | 2.3% | 9.5% | 0.7% | 13.7% | 27.8% | n/a |
| 10 | L'Hote Antoine | 2.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 8.7% | 36.6% | n/a |
| 11 | Hagenes Per Strand | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 13.3% | n/a |
| 12 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 6.1% | 34.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Vercher Mattéo | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 14.3% | 71.7% | n/a |
| 14 | Mariault Axel | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 6.5% | 37.7% | n/a |
| 15 | Stuyven Jasper | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 5.6% | 24.9% | n/a |
| 16 | Politt Nils | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 5.6% | 30.1% | n/a |
| 17 | Graat Tijmen | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 6.0% | 60.0% | n/a |
| 18 | Gautherat Pierre | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 9.8% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Nerurkar Lukas | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 40.8% | n/a |
| 20 | Thierry Pierre | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 21.2% | n/a |
| 21 | Oomen Sam | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 47.9% | n/a |
| 22 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 6.2% | 41.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Geoghegan Hart Tao | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 17.3% | n/a |
| 24 | Thonnon Senne | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 33.1% | n/a |
| 25 | Domínguez David | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 15.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Reinderink Pepijn | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 46.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Mollema Bauke | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 7.4% | n/a |
| 28 | Ramsay Noah | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 15.7% | n/a |
| 29 | Baroncini Filippo | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 14.1% | n/a |
| 30 | Vezie Maxime | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 26.0% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | 30.1% | 45.9% | 26.6% | 63.6% | 79.7% | n/a |
| 2 | Piganzoli Davide | 13.8% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 20.2% | 79.7% | n/a |
| 3 | Arrieta Igor | 5.8% | 2.4% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 77.1% | n/a |
| 4 | Stuyven Jasper | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 15.7% | 54.0% | n/a |
| 5 | Breuillard Nicolas | 3.6% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 39.6% | n/a |
| 6 | van den Berg Marijn | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 11.0% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Honore Mikkel | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 9.4% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 8 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 70.9% | n/a |
| 9 | Bagioli Andrea | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 9.5% | 35.2% | n/a |
| 10 | Raccagni Noviero Andrea | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 9.4% | 47.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Gautherat Pierre | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 9.8% | 30.5% | n/a |
| 12 | L'Hote Antoine | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 7.8% | 34.6% | n/a |
| 13 | Gachignard Thomas | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 8.3% | 52.8% | n/a |
| 14 | Vercher Mattéo | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 11.9% | 66.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Mariault Axel | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 5.4% | 42.0% | n/a |
| 16 | Hagenes Per Strand | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 21.2% | n/a |
| 17 | Politt Nils | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 6.5% | 38.3% | n/a |
| 18 | Nerurkar Lukas | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 7.4% | 50.6% | n/a |
| 19 | Kragh Andersen Søren | 1.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 5.9% | 41.4% | n/a |
| 20 | Graat Tijmen | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 40.4% | n/a |
| 21 | Thierry Pierre | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 23.5% | n/a |
| 22 | Oomen Sam | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 39.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Reinderink Pepijn | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 43.9% | n/a |
| 24 | Thonnon Senne | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 35.8% | n/a |
| 25 | Baroncini Filippo | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 17.4% | n/a |
| 26 | Geoghegan Hart Tao | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 11.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Vezie Maxime | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 37.5% | n/a |
| 28 | Remijn Senna | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 31.2% | n/a |
| 29 | Domínguez David | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 15.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Mollema Bauke | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 6.4% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Main read win p | Alt: res_4 win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van der Poel Mathieu | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 16.8% | 30.1% |
| 2 | Honore Mikkel | EF Education-EasyPost | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| 3 | Reinderink Pepijn | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | Piganzoli Davide | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 17.8% | 13.8% |
| 5 | Nerurkar Lukas | EF Education-EasyPost | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 6 | Vercher Mattéo | Team TotalEnergies | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| 7 | Kragh Andersen Søren | Lidl-Trek | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| 8 | Gachignard Thomas | Team TotalEnergies | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| 9 | L'Hote Antoine | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| 10 | Paret-Peintre Aurélien | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Main read | 16.82% | – |
| Alt: res_4 | 30.05% | – |