The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 74% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 32.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Scott Cameron | Li Ning Star | 7.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Munoz Hodei | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 4.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Isasa Xabier | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 4.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Lopez Jordi | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 4.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Ugarte Gari | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 2.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 1.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Quartucci Lorenzo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Boúglas Georgios | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Rasch Jesper | China Anta - Mentech CT | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavia Daniel | 32.6% | 25.3% | 45.9% | 46.4% | 74.3% | n/a |
| 2 | Scott Cameron | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 36.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Munoz Hodei | 4.9% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 22.5% | 51.5% | n/a |
| 4 | Isasa Xabier | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 15.2% | 47.5% | n/a |
| 5 | Lopez Jordi | 4.0% | 2.1% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 54.6% | n/a |
| 6 | Ugarte Gari | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 8.3% | 34.9% | n/a |
| 7 | Rikunov Petr | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 9.1% | 47.8% | n/a |
| 8 | Quartucci Lorenzo | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 40.6% | n/a |
| 9 | Boúglas Georgios | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 6.0% | 27.2% | n/a |
| 10 | Rasch Jesper | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 7.7% | 25.7% | n/a |
| 11 | Da Silva Tiano | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.8% | 30.4% | n/a |
| 12 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 5.9% | 39.0% | n/a |
| 13 | Smit Willie | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 35.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Sanikwathi Thanawut | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 16.3% | n/a |
| 15 | Hopkins Dylan | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 28.1% | n/a |
| 16 | Miltiadis Andreas | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 25.9% | n/a |
| 17 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 23.2% | n/a |
| 18 | Fitsumbrhan Daniyom | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 16.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Jobber James | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 27.1% | n/a |
| 20 | Sydor Serhii | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 11.0% | n/a |
| 21 | Pronskiy Vadim | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 20.1% | n/a |
| 22 | Vandenbulcke Alex | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 18.2% | n/a |
| 23 | Verburg Luke | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 19.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Yang Mingsen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 16.4% | n/a |
| 25 | Li Tiancheng | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 12.5% | n/a |
| 26 | Iderbold Bold | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 17.2% | n/a |
| 27 | Labib Shotorban Ali | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 13.3% | n/a |
| 28 | Alustiza Nicolas | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 13.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Delgado David | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 11.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Meijers Jeroen | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 24.3% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavia Daniel | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 32.6% |
| 2 | Mudgway Luke | LI NING STAR | 0.2% |
| 3 | Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 1.2% |
| 4 | Verburg Luke | AZERION / VILLA VALKENBURG | 0.2% |
| 5 | Scott Cameron | LI NING STAR | 7.0% |
| 6 | Meijers Jeroen | VICTORIA SPORTS PRO CYCLING | 0.2% |
| 7 | Álvarez Rodrigo | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 0.9% |
| 8 | Ugarte Gari | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 2.7% |
| 9 | Rikunov Petr | WHEELTOP ROTOR CHENGDU TEAM | 1.9% |
| 10 | Da Silva Tiano | THE JOYRUN & HURRICANE CYCLING TEAM | 1.0% |
3 riders in the top 15 are shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: SMIT Willem Jakobus, SMIT Willem Jakobus, PAWSON Edward.
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 32.62% | – |