The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 86% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Cameron | Li Ning Star | 20.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Munoz Hodei | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 15.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Cavia Daniel | Burgos Burpellet BH | 13.7% | n/a | – | – |
| Rasch Jesper | China Anta - Mentech CT | 4.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Ugarte Gari | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 4.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Mudgway Luke | Li Ning Star | 3.6% | n/a | – | – |
| Rikunov Petr | Wheeltop Rotor Chengdu Team | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Lopez Jordi | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 2.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Smit Willie | China Anta - Mentech CT | 2.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Álvarez Rodrigo | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Verburg Luke | Azerion / Villa Valkenburg | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Isasa Xabier | Euskaltel-Euskadi | 1.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Meijers Jeroen | Victoria Sports Pro Cycling | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Da Silva Tiano | The JoyRun & Hurricane Cycling Team | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Boúglas Georgios | Burgos Burpellet BH | 1.0% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Cameron | 20.1% | 21.5% | 23.0% | 37.3% | 59.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Munoz Hodei | 15.1% | 19.8% | 16.4% | 38.4% | 67.2% | n/a |
| 3 | Cavia Daniel | 13.7% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 35.2% | 66.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Rasch Jesper | 4.6% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 25.5% | 48.4% | n/a |
| 5 | Ugarte Gari | 4.4% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 12.2% | 52.8% | n/a |
| 6 | Mudgway Luke | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 13.5% | 56.5% | n/a |
| 7 | Rikunov Petr | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 10.7% | 57.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Lopez Jordi | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 41.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Smit Willie | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 46.8% | n/a |
| 10 | Álvarez Rodrigo | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 7.6% | 48.1% | n/a |
| 11 | Verburg Luke | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 5.7% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 12 | Isasa Xabier | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 6.9% | 33.9% | n/a |
| 13 | Meijers Jeroen | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 5.7% | 52.3% | n/a |
| 14 | Da Silva Tiano | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 43.4% | n/a |
| 15 | Boúglas Georgios | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 10.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Quartucci Lorenzo | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.9% | 34.3% | n/a |
| 17 | Stepanov Andrei | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 27.5% | n/a |
| 18 | Yang Mingsen | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 38.6% | n/a |
| 19 | Sydor Serhii | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 8.1% | n/a |
| 20 | Hopkins Dylan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 16.4% | n/a |
| 21 | Tamm Lauri | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 14.1% | n/a |
| 22 | Forbes James | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 12.3% | n/a |
| 23 | Pawson Edward | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 20.0% | n/a |
| 24 | Jeong Seunghwa | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 25 | Pronskiy Vadim | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 25.9% | n/a |
| 26 | Fitsumbrhan Daniyom | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 9.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Iderbold Bold | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 21.8% | n/a |
| 28 | Sepulveda Eduardo | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 11.8% | n/a |
| 29 | Raileanu Cristian | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 17.0% | n/a |
| 30 | Desriac Loïc | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 16.2% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tamm Lauri | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 0.3% |
| 2 | Rikunov Petr | WHEELTOP ROTOR CHENGDU TEAM | 2.5% |
| 3 | Munoz Hodei | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 15.1% |
| 4 | Álvarez Rodrigo | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 1.3% |
| 5 | Cavia Daniel | BURGOS-BURPELLET-BH | 13.7% |
| 6 | Meijers Jeroen | VICTORIA SPORTS PRO CYCLING | 1.1% |
| 7 | Isasa Xabier | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 1.2% |
| 8 | Mudgway Luke | LI NING STAR | 3.6% |
| 9 | Ugarte Gari | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 4.4% |
| 10 | Küüt Oskar | QUICK PRO TEAM | 0.2% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.35% | – |