The same production stack priced under 1 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Hindsight (post-hoc) 117% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajovic Dusan | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 31.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Malucelli Matteo | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 26.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Salby Alexander | LI NING STAR | 17.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Barbier Pierre | TERENGGANU CYCLING TEAM | 7.4% | n/a | – | – |
| Scott Cameron | LI NING STAR | 3.9% | n/a | – | – |
| Walsh Liam | CCACHE X BODYWRAP | 3.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Munoz Hodei | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 3.0% | n/a | – | – |
| Oosterlinck Joes | VAN RYSEL ROUBAIX | 2.2% | n/a | – | – |
| Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 1.8% | n/a | – | – |
| Konychev Alexander | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 1.5% | n/a | – | – |
| Pita Cristian | ROOJAI INSURANCE WINSPACE | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Nencini Tommaso | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Finkst Tilen | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Lopez Jordi | EUSKALTEL-EUSKADI | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| Syritsa Gleb | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 1.3% | n/a | – | – |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajovic Dusan | 31.5% | 32.2% | 26.7% | 61.7% | 84.0% | n/a |
| 2 | Malucelli Matteo | 26.2% | 18.2% | 24.3% | 50.6% | 81.0% | n/a |
| 3 | Salby Alexander | 17.5% | 20.7% | 14.1% | 47.2% | 75.7% | n/a |
| 4 | Barbier Pierre | 7.4% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 31.6% | 68.9% | n/a |
| 5 | Scott Cameron | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 14.5% | 58.9% | n/a |
| 6 | Walsh Liam | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 14.2% | 58.6% | n/a |
| 7 | Munoz Hodei | 3.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 16.7% | 68.9% | n/a |
| 8 | Oosterlinck Joes | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 5.7% | 53.3% | n/a |
| 9 | Rasch Jesper | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 7.4% | 48.9% | n/a |
| 10 | Konychev Alexander | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 42.7% | n/a |
| 11 | Pita Cristian | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 35.5% | n/a |
| 12 | Nencini Tommaso | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 39.3% | n/a |
| 13 | Finkst Tilen | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 44.2% | n/a |
| 14 | Lopez Jordi | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 28.6% | n/a |
| 15 | Syritsa Gleb | 1.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 12.3% | 44.6% | n/a |
| 16 | Vahtra Norman | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 39.8% | n/a |
| 17 | Ugarte Gari | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 41.7% | n/a |
| 18 | Hamdan Wan Abdul Rahman | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 25.4% | n/a |
| 19 | Isasa Xabier | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 25.6% | n/a |
| 20 | Rysbay Dias | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 24.7% | n/a |
| 21 | Shnyrko Aliaksei | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 17.2% | n/a |
| 22 | Wang Gustav | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 19.7% | n/a |
| 23 | Bradac Adam | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 6.2% | 42.7% | n/a |
| 24 | Da Silva Tiano | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 40.7% | n/a |
| 25 | Sydor Serhii | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 32.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Fox Matthew | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 22.7% | n/a |
| 27 | Phonarjthan Patompob | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 13.1% | n/a |
| 28 | Räim Mihkel | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 20.9% | n/a |
| 29 | Yelyubayev Ruslan | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 11.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Hopkins Dylan | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 18.8% | n/a |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malucelli Matteo | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 26.2% |
| 2 | Giddings Joshua | LOTTO INTERMARCHÉ | 0.2% |
| 3 | Rajovic Dusan | SOLUTION TECH NIPPO RALI | 31.5% |
| 4 | Salby Alexander | LI NING STAR | 17.5% |
| 5 | Syritsa Gleb | XDS ASTANA TEAM | 1.3% |
| 6 | Scott Cameron | LI NING STAR | 3.9% |
| 7 | Bradac Adam | FACTOR RACING | 0.5% |
| 8 | Pita Cristian | ROOJAI INSURANCE WINSPACE | 1.3% |
| 9 | Rasch Jesper | CHINA ANTA - MENTECH CYCLING TEAM | 1.8% |
| 10 | Eather Kurt | CCACHE X BODYWRAP | 0.1% |
1 rider in the top 15 is shown under a provisional identity pending reconciliation: PITA BOLAÑOS Alexander.
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 26.17% | – |