The same production stack priced under 2 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Compressed ITT 139%, Opener gaps 144% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Compressed ITT | Opener gaps | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 43.9% | 60.1% | 6.50 | 10.4% | +49.7pp |
| Tarling Joshua | Netcompany INEOS | 27.9% | 20.0% | 1.60 | 42.4% | -14.5pp |
| Vine Jay | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 8.7% | 10.3% | 15.00 | 4.5% | +5.8pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 5.0% | 6.5% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +5.9pp |
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.50 | 15.1% | -9.2pp |
| Chamberlain Oscar | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 5.4% | 3.0% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +5.2pp |
| Küng Stefan | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 4.6% | 4.6% | 12.00 | 5.7% | -1.1pp |
| Thornley Callum | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 4.3% | 2.4% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +2.9pp |
| Almeida Joao | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.4% | 3.8% | 41.00 | 1.7% | +2.2pp |
| Armirail Bruno | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 3.8% | 2.9% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +2.8pp |
| Fisher-Black Finn | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.2% | 2.9% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +2.2pp |
| Pedersen Mads | Lidl-Trek | 2.9% | 2.4% | 21.00 | 3.2% | -0.3pp |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 2.6% | 2.5% | 41.00 | 1.7% | +1.0pp |
| Laporte Christophe | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.7% | 1.8% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.0pp |
| Turner Ben | Netcompany INEOS | 1.7% | 1.0% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +1.0pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.2% | 1.5% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +0.8pp |
| Oliveira Ivo | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.5% | 0.7% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.6pp |
| Hayter Ethan | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.4% | 1.2% | 19.00 | 3.6% | -2.2pp |
| Brennan Matthew | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.2% | 0.8% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.7pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1501.00 | 0.0% | +1.0pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 43.9% | 48.6% | 30.5% | 77.3% | 90.0% | 6.50 |
| 2 | Tarling Joshua | 27.9% | 26.6% | 20.5% | 53.8% | 86.0% | 1.60 |
| 3 | Vine Jay | 8.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 18.6% | 61.3% | 15.00 |
| 4 | van Aert Wout | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 14.7% | 49.2% | 4.50 |
| 5 | Chamberlain Oscar | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 14.8% | 59.7% | 401.00 |
| 6 | Roglic Primoz | 5.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 10.2% | 46.2% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Küng Stefan | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 11.5% | 52.7% | 12.00 |
| 8 | Thornley Callum | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 16.8% | 54.3% | 51.00 |
| 9 | Armirail Bruno | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 14.2% | 56.9% | 67.00 |
| 10 | Fisher-Black Finn | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 14.8% | 57.3% | 67.00 |
| 11 | Pedersen Mads | 2.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 13.6% | 55.1% | 21.00 |
| 12 | Romeo Ivan | 2.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 12.8% | 49.7% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Almeida Joao | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 9.1% | 41.5% | 41.00 |
| 14 | Laporte Christophe | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 7.7% | 34.4% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Turner Ben | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 8.5% | 41.7% | 101.00 |
| 16 | Oliveira Ivo | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 9.9% | 37.6% | 81.00 |
| 17 | Hayter Ethan | 1.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 7.6% | 38.8% | 19.00 |
| 18 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 5.0% | 45.7% | 101.00 |
| 19 | Brennan Matthew | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 8.6% | 26.7% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 25.1% | 1001.00 |
| 21 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 25.5% | 301.00 |
| 22 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 21.9% | n/a |
| 23 | Torres Pablo | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 20.4% | 401.00 |
| 24 | Onley Oscar | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 37.9% | 1501.00 |
| 25 | Tulett Ben | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 21.7% | 401.00 |
| 26 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 27.0% | 1501.00 |
| 27 | Brenner Marco | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 24.4% | 1001.00 |
| 28 | García Raúl | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 16.5% | 601.00 |
| 29 | Barta William | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 19.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Beloki Markel | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 18.7% | 1001.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 60.1% | 56.0% | 42.8% | 82.7% | 93.2% | 6.50 |
| 2 | Tarling Joshua | 20.0% | 27.4% | 12.0% | 45.5% | 80.4% | 1.60 |
| 3 | Vine Jay | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 24.8% | 70.4% | 15.00 |
| 4 | Roglic Primoz | 6.5% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 15.8% | 59.2% | 101.00 |
| 5 | van Aert Wout | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 16.8% | 52.0% | 4.50 |
| 6 | Küng Stefan | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 11.4% | 55.0% | 12.00 |
| 7 | Almeida Joao | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 13.0% | 56.2% | 41.00 |
| 8 | Chamberlain Oscar | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 12.0% | 53.1% | 401.00 |
| 9 | Fisher-Black Finn | 2.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 14.4% | 55.8% | 67.00 |
| 10 | Armirail Bruno | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 12.8% | 57.3% | 67.00 |
| 11 | Romeo Ivan | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 10.7% | 49.8% | 41.00 |
| 12 | Pedersen Mads | 2.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 11.3% | 48.7% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Thornley Callum | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 10.3% | 44.3% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Laporte Christophe | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 8.6% | 37.3% | 81.00 |
| 15 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 5.9% | 46.0% | 101.00 |
| 16 | Hayter Ethan | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 7.0% | 38.4% | 19.00 |
| 17 | Onley Oscar | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 7.6% | 41.9% | 1501.00 |
| 18 | Turner Ben | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 32.6% | 101.00 |
| 19 | Brennan Matthew | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 9.8% | 23.2% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 27.1% | 301.00 |
| 21 | Oliveira Ivo | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 8.0% | 40.9% | 81.00 |
| 22 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 3.7% | 27.1% | 1001.00 |
| 23 | Torres Pablo | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 21.8% | 401.00 |
| 24 | Tulett Ben | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 23.4% | 401.00 |
| 25 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 17.8% | n/a |
| 26 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 25.3% | 1501.00 |
| 27 | Brenner Marco | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 20.4% | 1001.00 |
| 28 | Gall Felix | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 22.3% | 4001.00 |
| 29 | Beloki Markel | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 19.9% | 1001.00 |
| 30 | Mas Enric | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 17.0% | 4001.00 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Compressed ITT win p | Opener gaps win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 43.9% | 60.1% |
| 2 | Hayter Ethan | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| 3 | Tarling Joshua | Netcompany INEOS Cycling Team | 27.9% | 20.0% |
| 4 | Thornley Callum | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| 5 | Laporte Christophe | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 7 | Chamberlain Oscar | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 5.4% | 3.0% |
| 8 | van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 5.6% | 5.9% |
| 9 | Fisher-Black Finn | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| 10 | Kluckers Arthur | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Compressed ITT | 43.93% | 10.44% |
| Opener gaps | 60.12% | 10.44% |