The same production stack priced under 5 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC attack 102%, Regroup on the flat 91%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 106% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Mountain break | UAE satellite | GC attack | Regroup on the flat | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | – | 64.8% | 49.8% | 64.6% | 3.25 | 20.4% | +44.4pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | – | – | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +4.2pp |
| Gall Felix | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | – | – | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 41.00 | 1.6% | +2.8pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | – | – | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +1.6pp |
| Mas Enric | Movistar Team | – | – | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +1.5pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | – | – | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.9pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | – | – | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +1.4pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 5.5% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 12.00 | 5.5% | -3.9pp |
| Nordhagen Jørgen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 5.1% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.3pp |
| Vine Jay | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | 6.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 19.00 | 3.5% | -2.0pp |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 7.0% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 41.00 | 1.6% | -0.5pp |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | – | – | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 101.00 | 0.7% | +0.4pp |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 23.00 | 2.9% | -2.0pp |
| Tulett Ben | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 12.00 | 5.5% | -4.8pp |
| Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | – | 3.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 29.00 | 2.3% | -1.6pp |
| Fortunato Lorenzo | XDS Astana Team | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 17.00 | 3.9% | -3.3pp |
| Bilbao Pello | Bahrain Victorious | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 26.00 | 2.5% | -2.1pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Romeo Ivan | 2.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 17.9% | 41.00 |
| 2 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 30.7% | 67.00 |
| 3 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 24.4% | 12.00 |
| 4 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.6% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 24.8% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Tulett Ben | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 25.0% | 12.00 |
| 6 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 24.5% | 23.00 |
| 7 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 20.5% | 41.00 |
| 8 | Almeida Joao | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 14.9% | 126.00 |
| 9 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 16.8% | 51.00 |
| 11 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 15.9% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 22.3% | 17.00 |
| 13 | Berthet Clément | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 25.2% | 81.00 |
| 14 | Bilbao Pello | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 13.0% | 26.00 |
| 15 | Zana Filippo | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 20.4% | 151.00 |
| 16 | van Aert Wout | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 34.00 |
| 17 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 17.6% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Laporte Christophe | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | n/a |
| 19 | Beloki Markel | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 6.4% | 81.00 |
| 20 | Tuckwell Luke | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 21.4% | 81.00 |
| 21 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 30.2% | 101.00 |
| 22 | García Raúl | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 101.00 |
| 23 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 16.6% | 81.00 |
| 24 | Landa Mikel | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 13.1% | 41.00 |
| 25 | Laurance Axel | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 10.3% | 81.00 |
| 26 | Rodriguez Cristian | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 15.6% | 81.00 |
| 27 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 7.6% | 301.00 |
| 28 | Double Paul | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 51.00 |
| 29 | Vermaerke Kevin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 7.8% | 301.00 |
| 30 | Pickering Finlay | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 8.7% | 101.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vine Jay | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 37.6% | 19.00 |
| 2 | Romeo Ivan | 2.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 17.9% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 30.7% | 67.00 |
| 4 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 24.4% | 12.00 |
| 5 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.6% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 24.8% | 51.00 |
| 6 | Tejada Harold | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 37.9% | 29.00 |
| 7 | Tulett Ben | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 25.0% | 12.00 |
| 8 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 24.5% | 23.00 |
| 9 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 20.5% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Almeida Joao | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 14.9% | 126.00 |
| 11 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 41.00 |
| 12 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 16.8% | 51.00 |
| 13 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 15.9% | 67.00 |
| 14 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 22.3% | 17.00 |
| 15 | Berthet Clément | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 25.2% | 81.00 |
| 16 | Bilbao Pello | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 13.0% | 26.00 |
| 17 | Zana Filippo | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.4% | 20.4% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Beloki Markel | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 18.2% | 81.00 |
| 19 | van Aert Wout | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 9.4% | 34.00 |
| 20 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 17.6% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Laporte Christophe | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | n/a |
| 22 | Tuckwell Luke | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 21.4% | 81.00 |
| 23 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 30.2% | 101.00 |
| 24 | García Raúl | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 101.00 |
| 25 | Brenner Marco | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 5.8% | 29.2% | 51.00 |
| 26 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 16.6% | 81.00 |
| 27 | Landa Mikel | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 13.1% | 41.00 |
| 28 | Laurance Axel | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 10.3% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Rodriguez Cristian | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 15.6% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 7.6% | 301.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 64.8% | 59.5% | 65.0% | 80.0% | 91.9% | 3.25 |
| 2 | Onley Oscar | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 19.9% | 76.6% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Gall Felix | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 16.5% | 68.9% | 41.00 |
| 4 | Roglic Primoz | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 8.5% | 61.4% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Mas Enric | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 12.3% | 67.4% | 67.00 |
| 6 | Carapaz Richard | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 10.1% | 61.3% | 51.00 |
| 7 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 7.9% | 55.9% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Vine Jay | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 37.8% | 19.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 26.4% | 12.00 |
| 10 | Kuss Sepp | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 7.4% | 46.7% | 101.00 |
| 11 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 30.7% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Romeo Ivan | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 4.1% | 15.7% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 4.6% | 27.7% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Widar Jarno | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 5.3% | 41.6% | 34.00 |
| 15 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 14.3% | 41.00 |
| 16 | Almeida Joao | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 6.2% | 17.3% | 126.00 |
| 17 | Bisiaux Léo | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 24.7% | 23.00 |
| 18 | Tejada Harold | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 39.0% | 29.00 |
| 19 | Tulett Ben | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 25.7% | 12.00 |
| 20 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 25.1% | 17.00 |
| 21 | Bilbao Pello | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 15.7% | 26.00 |
| 22 | Berthet Clément | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 32.2% | 81.00 |
| 23 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 12.5% | 67.00 |
| 24 | van Aert Wout | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 8.0% | 34.00 |
| 25 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 22.1% | 51.00 |
| 26 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 6.4% | 41.00 |
| 27 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 3.3% | 29.8% | 101.00 |
| 28 | Mühlberger Gregor | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 37.4% | 101.00 |
| 29 | Landa Mikel | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 15.5% | 41.00 |
| 30 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 19.4% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 49.8% | 48.2% | 55.1% | 65.8% | 82.2% | 3.25 |
| 2 | Gall Felix | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 13.7% | 58.4% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Onley Oscar | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 10.9% | 56.9% | 41.00 |
| 4 | Mas Enric | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 50.6% | 67.00 |
| 5 | Carapaz Richard | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 6.9% | 44.9% | 51.00 |
| 6 | Roglic Primoz | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 6.0% | 51.0% | 51.00 |
| 7 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 25.5% | 12.00 |
| 8 | Vine Jay | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 5.5% | 35.9% | 19.00 |
| 9 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 5.8% | 47.8% | 101.00 |
| 10 | Romeo Ivan | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 15.5% | 41.00 |
| 11 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4.0% | 29.6% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Kuss Sepp | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 6.3% | 41.9% | 101.00 |
| 13 | Bisiaux Léo | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 25.3% | 23.00 |
| 14 | Widar Jarno | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 36.4% | 34.00 |
| 15 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 4.3% | 25.1% | 51.00 |
| 16 | Tulett Ben | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 23.1% | 12.00 |
| 17 | Tejada Harold | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 37.7% | 29.00 |
| 18 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 3.4% | 21.2% | 51.00 |
| 19 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 6.9% | 29.0% | 17.00 |
| 20 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 5.6% | 41.00 |
| 21 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 12.8% | 41.00 |
| 22 | Berthet Clément | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 29.6% | 81.00 |
| 23 | van Aert Wout | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 12.1% | 34.00 |
| 24 | Bilbao Pello | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 17.6% | 26.00 |
| 25 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 15.3% | 67.00 |
| 26 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 4.2% | 31.7% | 101.00 |
| 27 | Laporte Christophe | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.6% | n/a |
| 28 | Almeida Joao | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 12.8% | 126.00 |
| 29 | Landa Mikel | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 14.5% | 41.00 |
| 30 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 19.9% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | 64.6% | 56.2% | 62.9% | 76.0% | 89.8% | 3.25 |
| 2 | Onley Oscar | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 18.4% | 78.2% | 41.00 |
| 3 | Gall Felix | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 16.9% | 70.5% | 41.00 |
| 4 | Roglic Primoz | 2.9% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 59.2% | 51.00 |
| 5 | Mas Enric | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 9.7% | 62.1% | 67.00 |
| 6 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 7.2% | 57.9% | 101.00 |
| 7 | Carapaz Richard | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 55.2% | 51.00 |
| 8 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.6% | 5.7% | 0.5% | 8.2% | 28.0% | 51.00 |
| 9 | Vine Jay | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 5.1% | 38.0% | 19.00 |
| 10 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 4.6% | 33.6% | 12.00 |
| 11 | Kuss Sepp | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 46.3% | 101.00 |
| 12 | Romeo Ivan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 17.8% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Riccitello Matthew | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 37.8% | 67.00 |
| 14 | Bisiaux Léo | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 5.0% | 30.1% | 23.00 |
| 15 | Almeida Joao | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 126.00 |
| 16 | Widar Jarno | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 40.3% | 34.00 |
| 17 | Tejada Harold | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 40.7% | 29.00 |
| 18 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.8% | 13.6% | 41.00 |
| 19 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 6.4% | 31.0% | 17.00 |
| 20 | Tulett Ben | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 3.6% | 26.3% | 12.00 |
| 21 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 32.9% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 23.7% | 51.00 |
| 23 | van Aert Wout | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 3.9% | 9.3% | 34.00 |
| 24 | Bilbao Pello | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 16.6% | 26.00 |
| 25 | Berthet Clément | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.7% | 33.0% | 81.00 |
| 26 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 13.1% | 67.00 |
| 27 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 6.1% | 41.00 |
| 28 | Mühlberger Gregor | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 40.9% | 101.00 |
| 29 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 9.9% | 301.00 |
| 30 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 18.9% | 81.00 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Mountain break win p | UAE satellite win p | GC attack win p | Regroup on the flat win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogacar Tadej | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 47.8% | 48.0% | 64.8% | 49.8% | 64.6% |
| 2 | Mas Enric | Movistar Team | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| 3 | Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| 5 | Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 6 | Gall Felix | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| 7 | Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% |
| 8 | Rodriguez Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Berthet Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 10 | Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Mountain break | 47.75% | 20.38% |
| UAE satellite | 47.97% | 20.38% |
| GC attack | 64.81% | 20.38% |
| Regroup on the flat | 49.79% | 20.38% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 64.64% | 20.38% |
Reflection
Pogacar won again and the break never mattered — Bartolo's gravel was enough, and the 20.6 km of descent and flat that were supposed to make a GC attack unprofitable simply did not. He and Enric Mas came in together, a five-man group of Debruyne, Carapaz, Tejada, Gall and Roglic followed at 46 seconds, and only twelve riders finished within two minutes. That is his third win in five raced stages.
The key was wrong in the same direction as the day's headline: I keyed res_2 at 0.65 and the oracle returned gc_day (covered, weight 0.35). More importantly it completes a pattern the archive now makes impossible to ignore. Across the four judgment stages of this race the oracle has landed on a MACRO item every single time — bunch, gc_day, bunch, gc_day — and never once on a residual analog. On three of those four I put the macro in the minority: st2 res_7 .55 (oracle bunch, scored 0.00), st5 bunch .35 (oracle bunch, 0.35), st6 res_2 .65 (oracle gc_day, 0.35). The only stage where I made the macro the majority, st4 at gc_day .6, is my only exact. Four for four is a small sample, but the direction is consistent and the mechanism is intelligible: I have been pricing the interesting branch over the boring one. Campaign record 2/5 exact, 4/5 covered, mean weight 0.46. From stage 7 the standing correction is to start from the macro and require a positive reason to demote it, rather than starting from the residual analog and asking whether the macro might also happen.
The book made the same error, far more expensively, and the model did not. The market's card behind Pogacar was a break card — Tulett 12.0, Johannessen 12.0, Fortunato 17.0, Vine 19.0, Bisiaux 23.0, Bilbao 26.0 — and NOT ONE of them finished in the top twenty. Vine was 54th, Johannessen 36th, Bisiaux 30th, Torres 40th, Bilbao 74th, Tulett 105th, Fortunato 119th. The model had refused the entire card, rating them #7 to #24, and it was right for the second consecutive test. Combined with stage 4 that is now two clean wins for the rider-quality default over paid break membership, and it sharpens yesterday's refinement: the GT hard-day hole is real but narrow, and on these Vuelta stages the expensive error has consistently been the book's, not the model's.
The retrieval channel paid the predicted price for the wrong key. The res_2-leaning boards held 8, 7 and 8 of the actual top 15 against the production board's 9; only `gc_attack`, keyed gc_day at 0.9, matched production at 9. That is gate 6 behaving exactly as specified — a wrong key costs pool composition and cannot touch prices — and it is the cleanest in-race demonstration of it so far, because the four boards differ ONLY in their keys and cuts while sharing the same heads. Running ledger across scored stages: st2 −1, st4 level, st5 +1, st6 −1.
Two caveats on yesterday's satellite discussion, now that the road has answered. The `uae_satellite` scenario was the right analytical object — the base read's top-15 cut genuinely did exclude riders who were free — but it made no difference to the outcome, returning an identical board to `mountain_break` because the cut only changes the conditional column, not the model's prices. And the underlying thesis did not get tested in the direction hoped: UAE did not sit up, Pogacar raced, and Vine finished 54th. The satellite reading remains live for stage 7 — Vine is now 19th at +14:45 and genuinely free, and the book still makes him its clear second choice at 7.50 — but stage 6 offered no evidence for it, and the cleaner lesson of the day is that a team with the strongest rider in the race has not yet shown any intention of giving stages away.