The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals GC showdown 88%, Muro splits it 83%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 82% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | GC showdown | Mountain break | Muro splits it | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gall Felix | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 13.2% | – | 10.6% | 10.8% | 13.00 | 5.0% | +8.2pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 12.8% | – | 10.8% | 9.3% | 21.00 | 3.1% | +9.8pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | 9.7% | – | 8.2% | 10.2% | 19.00 | 3.4% | +6.8pp |
| Mas Enric | Movistar Team | 7.9% | – | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.75 | 17.2% | -9.3pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 4.7% | – | 4.4% | 4.2% | 19.00 | 3.4% | +1.3pp |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 3.4% | – | 2.7% | 2.5% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +2.4pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 2.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 26.00 | 2.5% | +0.8pp |
| Kuss Sepp | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 2.5% | – | 3.2% | 2.2% | 13.00 | 5.0% | -1.8pp |
| Almeida Joao | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 26.00 | 2.5% | -0.4pp |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 1.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.6pp |
| Riccitello Matthew | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +0.9pp |
| Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | 1.5% | – | 1.7% | 1.5% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.5pp |
| Nordhagen Jørgen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 51.00 | 1.3% | +0.5pp |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.7% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 13.00 | 5.0% | -3.3pp |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 1.6% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 34.00 | 1.9% | -0.3pp |
| Rodriguez Carlos | Netcompany INEOS | 1.3% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +0.7pp |
| Bilbao Pello | Bahrain Victorious | 1.2% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.8pp |
| Berthet Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.1% | – | 1.2% | 1.2% | 41.00 | 1.6% | -0.4pp |
| Buitrago Santiago | Bahrain Victorious | 1.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 6.50 | 9.9% | -8.7pp |
| Vansevenant Mauri | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +0.5pp |
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.7% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.6pp |
| Omrzel Jakob | Bahrain Victorious | 0.9% | – | 1.0% | 0.8% | 29.00 | 2.2% | -1.2pp |
| Fortunato Lorenzo | XDS Astana Team | 1.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 26.00 | 2.5% | -1.5pp |
| Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 23.00 | 2.8% | -2.1pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gall Felix | 13.2% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 37.2% | 85.3% | 13.00 |
| 2 | Roglic Primoz | 12.8% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 30.8% | 78.1% | 21.00 |
| 3 | Onley Oscar | 9.7% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 36.0% | 82.5% | 19.00 |
| 4 | Mas Enric | 7.9% | 4.9% | 9.7% | 31.1% | 83.9% | 3.75 |
| 5 | Carapaz Richard | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 17.7% | 77.9% | 19.00 |
| 6 | Skjelmose Mattias | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 11.2% | 69.8% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Kuss Sepp | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 12.1% | 59.8% | 13.00 |
| 8 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 8.0% | 31.7% | 26.00 |
| 9 | Romeo Ivan | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 201.00 |
| 10 | Widar Jarno | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 8.2% | 46.8% | 13.00 |
| 11 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 5.3% | 37.0% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 7.2% | 37.1% | 34.00 |
| 13 | Tejada Harold | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.7% | 48.5% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 18.2% | 51.00 |
| 15 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 16.2% | 67.00 |
| 16 | Bilbao Pello | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 5.5% | 19.7% | 126.00 |
| 17 | Almeida Joao | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 4.8% | 19.0% | 26.00 |
| 18 | Berthet Clément | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 44.9% | 41.00 |
| 19 | Buitrago Santiago | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 27.6% | 6.50 |
| 20 | Vansevenant Mauri | 1.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 5.0% | 20.4% | 101.00 |
| 21 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 8.3% | 25.9% | 26.00 |
| 22 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 56.8% | 29.00 |
| 23 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 7.7% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 21.3% | 151.00 |
| 25 | van Aert Wout | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 9.7% | 151.00 |
| 26 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 12.7% | 501.00 |
| 27 | Landa Mikel | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 15.1% | 81.00 |
| 28 | Vermaerke Kevin | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 20.3% | 51.00 |
| 29 | Leknessund Andreas | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 9.7% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 12.7% | 23.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 31.2% | 26.00 |
| 2 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 19.9% | 67.00 |
| 3 | Romeo Ivan | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 15.6% | 201.00 |
| 4 | Widar Jarno | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 6.8% | 40.1% | 13.00 |
| 5 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 7.0% | 35.7% | 34.00 |
| 6 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 5.6% | 36.9% | 67.00 |
| 7 | Bilbao Pello | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 6.6% | 24.5% | 126.00 |
| 8 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4.6% | 18.1% | 51.00 |
| 9 | van Aert Wout | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 11.2% | 151.00 |
| 10 | Buitrago Santiago | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 23.0% | 6.50 |
| 11 | Almeida Joao | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 18.0% | 26.00 |
| 12 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 6.8% | 22.7% | 26.00 |
| 13 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 151.00 |
| 14 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 7.3% | 18.0% | 23.00 |
| 15 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 15.3% | 501.00 |
| 16 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 12.0% | 101.00 |
| 17 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 18.8% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Zana Filippo | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 4.2% | 22.9% | 81.00 |
| 19 | Laurance Axel | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 14.4% | n/a |
| 20 | Rodriguez Cristian | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 28.7% | 19.00 |
| 21 | Vermaerke Kevin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 19.5% | 51.00 |
| 22 | Kron Andreas | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 14.1% | 301.00 |
| 23 | Leknessund Andreas | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 7.5% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Landa Mikel | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 11.2% | 81.00 |
| 25 | Martin Guillaume | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 12.7% | 401.00 |
| 26 | Sosa Ivan | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 8.7% | 51.00 |
| 27 | García Raúl | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 8.4% | 201.00 |
| 28 | Double Paul | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 201.00 |
| 29 | Dunbar Edward | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 12.4% | n/a |
| 30 | Mulubrhan Henok | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 12.3% | n/a |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roglic Primoz | 10.8% | 8.1% | 13.8% | 26.4% | 74.8% | 21.00 |
| 2 | Gall Felix | 10.6% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 35.1% | 82.0% | 13.00 |
| 3 | Onley Oscar | 8.2% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 30.9% | 80.6% | 19.00 |
| 4 | Mas Enric | 6.0% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 28.7% | 82.2% | 3.75 |
| 5 | Carapaz Richard | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 15.4% | 75.1% | 19.00 |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 33.9% | 26.00 |
| 7 | Kuss Sepp | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 13.1% | 61.3% | 13.00 |
| 8 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 8.4% | 66.2% | 67.00 |
| 9 | Almeida Joao | 2.1% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 12.1% | 30.6% | 26.00 |
| 10 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 6.2% | 44.7% | 67.00 |
| 11 | Tejada Harold | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 9.5% | 52.4% | 51.00 |
| 12 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 20.8% | 51.00 |
| 13 | Romeo Ivan | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 16.6% | 201.00 |
| 14 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 5.6% | 19.1% | 67.00 |
| 15 | Widar Jarno | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 7.2% | 40.2% | 13.00 |
| 16 | Bilbao Pello | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 22.3% | 126.00 |
| 17 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 5.8% | 36.4% | 34.00 |
| 18 | Berthet Clément | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 45.8% | 41.00 |
| 19 | Omrzel Jakob | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.1% | 51.8% | 29.00 |
| 20 | Buitrago Santiago | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 21.9% | 6.50 |
| 21 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 13.0% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 5.9% | 24.7% | 26.00 |
| 23 | Castrillo Pablo | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 6.5% | 151.00 |
| 24 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 17.6% | 151.00 |
| 25 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 11.7% | 501.00 |
| 26 | Vermaerke Kevin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 18.0% | 51.00 |
| 27 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 11.9% | 23.00 |
| 28 | Zana Filippo | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 14.2% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Rodriguez Cristian | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 38.2% | 19.00 |
| 30 | Landa Mikel | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 10.6% | 81.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gall Felix | 10.8% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 30.8% | 74.6% | 13.00 |
| 2 | Onley Oscar | 10.2% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 29.4% | 75.9% | 19.00 |
| 3 | Roglic Primoz | 9.3% | 5.8% | 12.3% | 19.9% | 62.0% | 21.00 |
| 4 | Mas Enric | 6.4% | 2.9% | 8.8% | 17.5% | 68.4% | 3.75 |
| 5 | Carapaz Richard | 4.2% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 13.7% | 65.9% | 19.00 |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 9.0% | 32.8% | 26.00 |
| 7 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 50.9% | 67.00 |
| 8 | Kuss Sepp | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 11.0% | 55.2% | 13.00 |
| 9 | Rodriguez Carlos | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 19.4% | 67.00 |
| 10 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 18.2% | 51.00 |
| 11 | Tejada Harold | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 9.5% | 48.4% | 51.00 |
| 12 | Widar Jarno | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 42.2% | 13.00 |
| 13 | Bilbao Pello | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 7.0% | 21.7% | 126.00 |
| 14 | Romeo Ivan | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 16.7% | 201.00 |
| 15 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 6.1% | 37.6% | 34.00 |
| 16 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 37.2% | 67.00 |
| 17 | Buitrago Santiago | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 4.8% | 24.6% | 6.50 |
| 18 | Berthet Clément | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 46.1% | 41.00 |
| 19 | Almeida Joao | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 17.4% | 26.00 |
| 20 | Vansevenant Mauri | 1.1% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 5.7% | 18.2% | 101.00 |
| 21 | van Aert Wout | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 10.8% | 151.00 |
| 22 | Castrillo Pablo | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 9.9% | 151.00 |
| 23 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 25.8% | 26.00 |
| 24 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 4.9% | 26.4% | 151.00 |
| 25 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 52.9% | 29.00 |
| 26 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 11.4% | 501.00 |
| 27 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 6.3% | 17.8% | 23.00 |
| 28 | Zana Filippo | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 21.5% | 81.00 |
| 29 | Landa Mikel | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 5.2% | 26.3% | 81.00 |
| 30 | Vermaerke Kevin | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 17.5% | 51.00 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | GC showdown win p | Mountain break win p | Muro splits it win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brenner Marco | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | Buitrago Santiago | Bahrain Victorious | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | Rodriguez Cristian | XDS Astana Team | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 4 | Sosa Ivan | Equipo Kern Pharma | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 5 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| 6 | Berthet Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 7 | Nordhagen Jørgen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| 8 | Zana Filippo | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 9 | Calzoni Walter | Pinarello-Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Almeida João | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | – | – | – | – |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| GC showdown | 0.30% | 0.32% |
| Mountain break | 0.26% | 0.32% |
| Muro splits it | 0.23% | 0.32% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 0.28% | 0.32% |
Reflection
The escape won for the third time in four mountain stages, and it won in the one way the morning read had argued against. Marco Brenner took Tudor's first Grand Tour stage from a 44-rider break, beating Santiago Buitrago by a second after the Colombian had attacked on the steepest section and been reeled back as the gradient eased; Cristian Rodriguez was third at 11 seconds and Ivan Sosa fourth at 14. The first GC riders home — Mas and Gall, together — were 21st and 22nd at 4:12. The oracle labelled the day res_2 (winner group of two, realized front a climbers' escape, first GC man outside the front five), and the key of gc_day 0.6 / res_2 0.4 scored covered at 0.40. The tier-3 record stands at 6/12 exact, 11/12 covered, mean weight 0.53.
The terrain half of the read was right and the oracle does not credit it, which is now the campaign's recurring shape on mountain days. The Pandera did exactly what the road book promised: Mas attacked at 2.7 km to go and dropped Skjelmose, Roglic accelerated inside 1.5 km and could not shed him, and the classification moved — Roglic lost 25 seconds and drops to third behind Gall, Carapaz lost 31, Onley 1:15, Skjelmose 1:17. A 'shattering instrument' is precisely what the finish proved to be. But the oracle labels the day by who wins, not by what happens behind, and the escape had seven minutes at the foot of the climb. The morning note's own sentence — 'chase incentive predicts whether the GC group RACES, not whether the break is CAUGHT' — was the right refinement; the mistake was drawing the wrong conclusion from it.
The launchpad argument was the specific error, and it is worth naming so the next read does not repeat it. The case for gc_day at 0.6 rested on a structural difference from Calar Alto: there the climbing began at km 7.7, here the first categorised climb came at km 80, so a break would have far less road in which to build a defensible lead. That was true and irrelevant. The break did not need the climbs to build its lead — it went in the opening kilometres on flat roads and was allowed seven minutes because of who was in it: forty-four riders with every team represented, UAE sending Almeida, Vermaerke and Oliveira, and Movistar — the leader's own team — placing Castrillo and Garcia Pierna in it. Once the red jersey's team has two men up the road, the chase-incentive question answers itself: Movistar will not chase their own satellites, and Red Bull and Decathlon needed to attack Mas, not close a gap for him. A launchpad check measures where a break can extend a lead; the size and composition of the move, and whether the leader's team is in it, decide whether it gets one at all. Applied properly, the incentive test pointed to res_2 by lunchtime, and the market — which had 60% of its probability outside the GC top-10 and Buitrago second choice at 9.9% — had read it right.
Where the retrieval channel did its job was, again, on the branch board rather than the official one. The 'mountain break' board, keyed res_2 0.85 with the GC top-10 cut, surfaced five of the actual top 15 inside its pool of fifteen against the production board's two — Paret-Peintre #6, Nordhagen #4, Zana #7, Buitrago #12, Almeida #13 — while the official 'GC showdown' board managed two against one. Buitrago, the market's second choice, sat #12-19 across the boards at about 1.1%, and Brenner — a 101.0 shot on the book at 0.3% — was #22 on the break board and #41-50 elsewhere; Sosa was #33-42. That is the same break-membership wall as Valdelinares and Calar Alto: the model can rank the climbers who might be in a move, but nothing it sees tells it who will be, and a 44-man escape makes the pool almost the whole peloton minus the top ten.
The hindsight board, built on five escape-won mountain days and keyed res_2 outright, is the seventh consecutive post-hoc reconstruction to fail to beat the morning read on the winner. It retrieves the same five of the top 15 that the 'mountain break' board found prospectively (production: one), moves Paret-Peintre to #4 and Buitrago to #11, and still leaves Brenner at #25 and Sosa at #23 at 0.3% each. Better course knowledge would not have found them; they were found by being in a 44-man move, which is not a thing the model sees.
The race state going into the last week. Mas leads Gall by 2:06 and Roglic by 2:10, Carapaz at 4:24, Onley 5:44, Omrzel 6:14, Skjelmose 6:49, and Cristian Rodriguez climbed to 8th at 7:01 from the break. The book has effectively decided — Mas 1.20 (69.5% devig), Roglic 6.00, Gall 9.00 — and the two GC heads have moved further apart rather than closer: the state-aware outlook has Mas 34.5% / Roglic 26.2% / Gall 3.0%, still concentrated on the two men it decided were the race before Gall had shown himself, while the blend has Roglic 29.6% / Gall 17.9% / Onley 16.1% / Mas 8.6% because it never sees the standings. Neither is within twenty points of the market on the leader. Five more riders left the race — Busatto, Lutsenko, Mühlberger, Sentjens and Sivakov — leaving 150.