The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Bunch sprint 87%, Artafi thins it 93%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 71% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Bunch sprint | Artafi thins it | Break survives | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Matthew | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 57.7% | 60.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.50 | 25.4% | +35.2pp |
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 7.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.50 | 14.1% | -5.3pp |
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 8.4% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 23.00 | 2.8% | +5.6pp |
| De Schuyteneer Steffen | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +2.8pp |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 67.00 | 0.9% | +1.7pp |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.8pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | 0.0% | 0.1% | – | 2.4% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +2.2pp |
| Tejada Harold | XDS Astana Team | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +2.0pp |
| Laurance Axel | Netcompany INEOS | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +0.4pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.0% | 0.0% | – | 1.9% | 501.00 | 0.1% | +1.8pp |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +0.6pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 41.00 | 1.5% | +0.1pp |
| Berthet Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.0% | 0.1% | – | 1.5% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.3pp |
| Bilbao Pello | Bahrain Victorious | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.6pp |
| Dainese Alberto | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +1.2pp |
| Fisher-Black Finn | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 51.00 | 1.2% | +0.1pp |
| Nordhagen Jørgen | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +1.2pp |
| Castrillo Pablo | Movistar Team | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.9pp |
| Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.8pp |
| Vansevenant Mauri | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 301.00 | 0.2% | +1.0pp |
| Kron Andreas | Uno-X Mobility | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 29.00 | 2.2% | -0.9pp |
| Almeida Joao | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.8pp |
| Zana Filippo | Soudal Quick-Step | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.6pp |
| García Raúl | Movistar Team | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.5pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan Matthew | 57.7% | 46.5% | 69.0% | 68.4% | 88.7% | 2.50 |
| 2 | Meeus Jordi | 8.4% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 41.0% | 77.7% | 23.00 |
| 3 | van Aert Wout | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 26.1% | 61.0% | 4.50 |
| 4 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 9.7% | 68.6% | 251.00 |
| 5 | Dainese Alberto | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 8.5% | 54.7% | 251.00 |
| 6 | Laurance Axel | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 8.8% | 62.4% | 34.00 |
| 7 | Macias Cesar | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 6.3% | 62.9% | 501.00 |
| 8 | Hofstetter Hugo | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 7.1% | 79.0% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Brustenga Marc | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 57.2% | 401.00 |
| 10 | Coquard Bryan | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 5.5% | 57.8% | 29.00 |
| 11 | Govekar Matevz | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 62.4% | 251.00 |
| 12 | Aular Orluis | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 52.5% | 41.00 |
| 13 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 4.3% | 60.3% | 41.00 |
| 14 | Oliveira Ivo | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 4.5% | 28.1% | 67.00 |
| 15 | Renard Alexis | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 49.5% | 501.00 |
| 16 | Cort Magnus | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 17.1% | 21.00 |
| 17 | Canal Carlos | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 27.7% | 251.00 |
| 18 | Braet Vito | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 57.5% | 201.00 |
| 19 | Tronchon Bastien | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 34.1% | 41.00 |
| 20 | Camprubí Marcel | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 18.5% | 51.00 |
| 21 | Nys Thibau | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 27.1% | 34.00 |
| 22 | Thornley Callum | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 8.4% | 601.00 |
| 23 | Brenner Marco | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 9.5% | 101.00 |
| 24 | Garofoli Gianmarco | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 19.1% | 201.00 |
| 25 | Albanese Vincenzo | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 31.2% | 34.00 |
| 26 | Hayter Ethan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 15.8% | 151.00 |
| 27 | Mulubrhan Henok | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 9.5% | 126.00 |
| 28 | Vader Milan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 15.1% | 301.00 |
| 29 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 41.00 |
| 30 | Alleno Clément | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 27.4% | 501.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan Matthew | 60.6% | 47.6% | 68.6% | 66.1% | 84.5% | 2.50 |
| 2 | van Aert Wout | 8.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 25.8% | 57.2% | 4.50 |
| 3 | Meeus Jordi | 6.7% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 32.5% | 72.7% | 23.00 |
| 4 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 7.5% | 54.6% | 251.00 |
| 5 | Laurance Axel | 1.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 10.6% | 61.3% | 34.00 |
| 6 | Dainese Alberto | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 7.5% | 47.3% | 251.00 |
| 7 | Hofstetter Hugo | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 8.3% | 71.1% | 101.00 |
| 8 | Govekar Matevz | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 8.8% | 57.9% | 251.00 |
| 9 | Oliveira Ivo | 0.7% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 6.0% | 22.5% | 67.00 |
| 10 | Coquard Bryan | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 5.2% | 47.7% | 29.00 |
| 11 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 7.2% | 60.4% | 41.00 |
| 12 | Macias Cesar | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 6.6% | 43.6% | 501.00 |
| 13 | Aular Orluis | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 5.5% | 49.2% | 41.00 |
| 14 | Renard Alexis | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 48.8% | 501.00 |
| 15 | Canal Carlos | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 33.9% | 251.00 |
| 16 | Brustenga Marc | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 4.4% | 41.9% | 401.00 |
| 17 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 17.6% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Cort Magnus | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 5.4% | 40.0% | 21.00 |
| 19 | Braet Vito | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 4.5% | 58.5% | 201.00 |
| 20 | Mulubrhan Henok | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 15.9% | 126.00 |
| 21 | Brenner Marco | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 14.1% | 101.00 |
| 22 | Garofoli Gianmarco | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 27.2% | 201.00 |
| 23 | Thornley Callum | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 601.00 |
| 24 | Cobo Ivan | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 22.9% | 151.00 |
| 25 | Camprubí Marcel | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 23.0% | 51.00 |
| 26 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 41.00 |
| 27 | Albanese Vincenzo | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 41.0% | 34.00 |
| 28 | Hayter Ethan | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 18.5% | 151.00 |
| 29 | Tronchon Bastien | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 27.9% | 41.00 |
| 30 | Nys Thibau | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 27.0% | 34.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tejada Harold | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 27.5% | 251.00 |
| 2 | van Aert Wout | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 15.3% | 4.50 |
| 3 | Romeo Ivan | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 18.9% | 51.00 |
| 4 | Bisiaux Léo | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 7.0% | 33.1% | 101.00 |
| 5 | Widar Jarno | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 8.2% | 32.3% | 67.00 |
| 6 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 7.7% | 25.2% | 41.00 |
| 7 | Bilbao Pello | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 6.3% | 21.2% | 81.00 |
| 8 | Almeida Joao | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 20.1% | 151.00 |
| 9 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 19.6% | 401.00 |
| 10 | Riccitello Matthew | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 32.2% | 601.00 |
| 11 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 41.00 |
| 12 | Castrillo Pablo | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 10.0% | 151.00 |
| 13 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 26.0% | 401.00 |
| 14 | Fisher-Black Finn | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 13.8% | 51.00 |
| 15 | Vansevenant Mauri | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 5.5% | 23.8% | 301.00 |
| 16 | Buitrago Santiago | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 21.8% | 151.00 |
| 17 | Laurance Axel | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 17.1% | 34.00 |
| 18 | Zana Filippo | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 5.7% | 22.6% | 126.00 |
| 19 | Vermaerke Kevin | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 5.0% | 23.9% | 41.00 |
| 20 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 20.0% | 501.00 |
| 21 | Kron Andreas | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 4.6% | 23.6% | 29.00 |
| 22 | Rodriguez Carlos | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 10.5% | n/a |
| 23 | Brenner Marco | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 6.3% | 18.0% | 101.00 |
| 24 | Debruyne Ramses | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 8.3% | 24.9% | 126.00 |
| 25 | Leknessund Andreas | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 14.6% | 29.00 |
| 26 | García Raúl | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 10.8% | 126.00 |
| 27 | Double Paul | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 5.9% | 301.00 |
| 28 | Martin Guillaume | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 14.6% | 251.00 |
| 29 | Sosa Ivan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 7.0% | n/a |
| 30 | Pickering Finlay | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 12.4% | 601.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van Aert Wout | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 26.4% | 4.50 |
| 2 | Widar Jarno | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 32.4% | 67.00 |
| 3 | Bisiaux Léo | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 26.7% | 101.00 |
| 4 | Onley Oscar | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 12.1% | 27.5% | 501.00 |
| 5 | Tejada Harold | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 22.4% | 251.00 |
| 6 | Laurance Axel | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 7.8% | 29.6% | 34.00 |
| 7 | Roglic Primoz | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 18.5% | 501.00 |
| 8 | Romeo Ivan | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 16.5% | 51.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 23.8% | 41.00 |
| 10 | Berthet Clément | 1.5% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 16.3% | 301.00 |
| 11 | Brennan Matthew | 1.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 8.3% | 17.2% | 2.50 |
| 12 | Bilbao Pello | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 21.9% | 81.00 |
| 13 | Fisher-Black Finn | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 6.1% | 18.1% | 51.00 |
| 14 | Nordhagen Jørgen | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.8% | 19.3% | 401.00 |
| 15 | Castrillo Pablo | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 151.00 |
| 16 | Debruyne Ramses | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 7.9% | 27.8% | 126.00 |
| 17 | Vansevenant Mauri | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 5.1% | 28.1% | 301.00 |
| 18 | Kron Andreas | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 6.2% | 32.3% | 29.00 |
| 19 | Almeida Joao | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 18.7% | 151.00 |
| 20 | Zana Filippo | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 26.3% | 126.00 |
| 21 | García Raúl | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 10.7% | 126.00 |
| 22 | Vermaerke Kevin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 26.7% | 41.00 |
| 23 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 8.7% | 24.2% | 41.00 |
| 24 | Gall Felix | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 6.6% | 25.6% | n/a |
| 25 | Fortunato Lorenzo | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 8.2% | 401.00 |
| 26 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 12.2% | 151.00 |
| 27 | Carapaz Richard | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 15.1% | 301.00 |
| 28 | Mas Enric | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 4.9% | 18.9% | n/a |
| 29 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 15.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 16.9% | 301.00 |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Bunch sprint win p | Artafi thins it win p | Break survives win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 7.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
| 2 | Romele Alessandro | XDS Astana Team | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | Nys Thibau | Lidl-Trek | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| 5 | Leknessund Andreas | Uno-X Mobility | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 6 | Covi Alessandro | Team Jayco-AlUla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 7 | Tronchon Bastien | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 8 | Mulubrhan Henok | XDS Astana Team | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 9 | Küng Stefan | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 10 | Oliveira Ivo | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Bunch sprint | 7.07% | 14.08% |
| Artafi thins it | 8.79% | 14.08% |
| Break survives | 2.82% | 14.08% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 4.51% | 14.08% |
Reflection
The break survived and the official read did not see it coming. Wout van Aert won his second stage in three days from a five-man escape — Romele second, Nys third, Debruyne and Leknessund two seconds back — with the peloton at 58 seconds behind Covi, Cort and Brennan at 1:47, and the GC group together at 2:44. The oracle labelled the day res_4, a punchy front from a tiny group, and the key of bunch 0.55 / res_3 0.30 / res_1 0.15 was not covered at all: the first family miss of the campaign since stage 7. The tier-3 record stands at 6/13 exact, 11/13 covered, mean weight 0.48.
The same-race sprint ledger — five of five sprint-flavoured stages had come back `bunch` — was the argument, and it was falsified on the sixth. What the road book comparison could not see was who would ride Artafi and why. The morning note named the mechanism almost exactly ('a 5.5% climb 36 km out on a short, hot stage is exactly where a fast climber's team might ride to shed the last of the pure speed') and then weighted it into res_3, a reduced sprint, rather than an escape. Visma did ride it, but not to set up a smaller sprint for Brennan: they rode it to launch van Aert, who bridged to Leknessund and Debruyne at the intermediate sprint and never looked back. The same team held the sprint favourite and the strongest escape candidate, so the chase-incentive test returned 'controlled' — Visma twice over — when the honest answer was that Visma could win either shape and would choose the harder one on a 40°C day fifteen stages in. When one team owns both the fastest man and the best puncheur, the incentive test does not decide the family; which rider the team prefers does, and a team riding the last climb hard is telling you.
The boards told the story in the order the retrieval channel keeps telling it. The official 'bunch sprint' board had Brennan #1 at 57.7% against a 25.4% book, and he finished 24th; van Aert sat #3 at 7.1% against the book's 14.1%, and the market had the winner closer than the model did. The 'break survives' branch board, keyed res_4 0.45, had van Aert #1 and pulled Debruyne (#27) and Leknessund (#23) inside its pool of fifteen — three of the actual top fifteen against the production board's one — while the two sprint boards managed one each. Romele, a 23.0 shot on the book at 2.8%, was #34 to #88 across the boards: the same break-membership wall as Valdelinares, Calar Alto and the Pandera, this time on a flat day.
Van Aert's form signal, flagged after stage 7, has now paid four times: third at Valdelinares from the move, fifth at Lorca in the bunch, a win at stage 13 from a two-up, and a win here from a five-up. The model prices him as a fast man who survives lumps, which is why he was third on the sprint boards; what it cannot see is that on this race he has become the rider Visma choose over their own sprinter when the road is hard enough.
The hindsight board, built on five small escapes that survived by a minute and keyed res_4 outright, makes van Aert #1 at 4.5%, Nys #9, Debruyne #19 and Leknessund #29, and still leaves Romele at #65. It retrieves four of the top fifteen against the production board's four — no better than the morning's break branch, which is the eighth consecutive post-hoc reconstruction to fail to beat a prospective read. The winner was findable; his four companions were not, because escape membership is not a thing the model sees.
The classification did not move. Mas leads Gall by 2:06 and Roglic by 2:10, Carapaz 4:24, Onley 5:44; the book has Mas at 69.5%. The two GC heads remain split the same way as after the Pandera — the state-aware outlook at Mas 36.6% / Roglic 24.3% / Gall 2.9%, the blend at Roglic 30.0% / Gall 16.9% / Onley 16.2% / Mas 8.7% — neither within twenty points of the market on the leader. Five more riders left the race — Houle, Kretschy, Labrosse, Laporte and Peace — leaving 150. Monday is the second rest day; stage 16 is Tuesday 8 September.