The same production stack priced under 4 course readings, against the bookmaker's pre-stage line. Each scenario is one opinion about what kind of day this is; the results section settles the argument.
The fork
Course profile is an input the model can't see from a map — it's set from reference races (or overridden by hand). Different readings redistribute the same probability mass across rider types.
The board
Blend win probability per scenario (cascade × LambdaRank, DNF-adjusted at the pricing layer), next to the devigged Kambi (Unibet) win line captured the morning before the stage. "Max edge" compares the most favourable scenario against the book — treat it as scenario-conditional, not a free bet.
Read "Max edge" as directional, not as a price. The blend is a set of per-rider marginals and does not sum to one book — across this field each reading totals Cobbled selection 100%, Regroup gallop 103%, Hindsight (post-hoc) 109% — while the devigged book column sums to exactly 100%. Putting the two side by side flatters the model, and Max edge is inflated by about that factor: divide a rider's probability by his reading's total before calling anything an edge. Of our heads only the LambdaRank one is natively book-preserving.
| Rider | Team | Cobbled selection | Regroup gallop | Late move | Hindsight (post-hoc) | Book odds | Book devig | Max edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Matthew | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 28.4% | 41.5% | – | 26.8% | 5.50 | 11.9% | +29.6pp |
| Meeus Jordi | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 11.6% | 20.8% | – | 6.3% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +20.1pp |
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 12.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 1.75 | 37.4% | -22.4pp |
| De Schuyteneer Steffen | Lotto-Intermarché | 3.4% | 4.2% | – | 2.8% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +4.0pp |
| Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 2.2% | 1.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 67.00 | 1.0% | +3.2pp |
| Miquel Delgado Pau | Bahrain Victorious | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +1.1pp |
| Laurance Axel | Netcompany INEOS | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 26.00 | 2.5% | +0.4pp |
| Onley Oscar | Netcompany INEOS | 1.5% | 0.4% | – | 2.5% | 101.00 | 0.6% | +1.9pp |
| Cort Magnus | Uno-X Mobility | 2.0% | 1.5% | – | 2.0% | 21.00 | 3.1% | -1.1pp |
| Coquard Bryan | Cofidis | 1.5% | 2.0% | – | 2.0% | 34.00 | 1.9% | +0.1pp |
| Roglic Primoz | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 1.1% | 0.2% | – | 2.0% | 201.00 | 0.3% | +1.7pp |
| Nys Thibau | Lidl-Trek | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 19.00 | 3.4% | -1.6pp |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.6% | 0.2% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +1.0pp |
| Brenner Marco | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.5% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +1.1pp |
| Romele Alessandro | XDS Astana Team | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 21.00 | 3.1% | -1.6pp |
| Carapaz Richard | EF Education-EasyPost | 1.0% | 0.2% | – | 1.4% | 26.00 | 2.5% | -1.1pp |
| Braet Vito | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.4% | 1.3% | – | 1.0% | 81.00 | 0.8% | +0.6pp |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 0.5% | 0.2% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 151.00 | 0.4% | +0.9pp |
| Hofstetter Hugo | NSN Cycling Team | 1.2% | 1.3% | – | 1.1% | 126.00 | 0.5% | +0.8pp |
| Berthet Clément | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.5% | 0.2% | – | 1.1% | n/a | – | – |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 1.0% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +0.9pp |
| Canal Carlos | Movistar Team | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 251.00 | 0.3% | +0.8pp |
| Tronchon Bastien | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 51.00 | 1.3% | -0.2pp |
| Dainese Alberto | Soudal Quick-Step | 1.0% | 1.0% | – | 0.5% | 401.00 | 0.2% | +0.9pp |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan Matthew | 28.4% | 36.0% | 26.6% | 56.7% | 72.2% | 5.50 |
| 2 | van Aert Wout | 12.5% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 28.9% | 60.1% | 1.75 |
| 3 | Meeus Jordi | 11.6% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 30.3% | 50.0% | 101.00 |
| 4 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 33.0% | 401.00 |
| 5 | Laurance Axel | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 12.2% | 45.9% | 26.00 |
| 6 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 43.9% | 34.00 |
| 7 | Debruyne Ramses | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 46.7% | 67.00 |
| 8 | Cort Magnus | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 17.6% | 40.6% | 21.00 |
| 9 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 15.6% | 81.00 |
| 10 | Coquard Bryan | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 7.1% | 34.8% | 34.00 |
| 11 | Onley Oscar | 1.5% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 27.6% | 101.00 |
| 12 | Braet Vito | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 8.5% | 32.4% | 81.00 |
| 13 | Romele Alessandro | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 11.5% | 35.8% | 21.00 |
| 14 | Nys Thibau | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 9.6% | 29.6% | 19.00 |
| 15 | Hofstetter Hugo | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 9.3% | 40.9% | 126.00 |
| 16 | Roglic Primoz | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 24.0% | 201.00 |
| 17 | Camprubí Marcel | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 6.3% | 34.2% | 67.00 |
| 18 | Carapaz Richard | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 24.8% | 26.00 |
| 19 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 18.2% | 251.00 |
| 20 | Dainese Alberto | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 6.7% | 25.6% | 401.00 |
| 21 | Canal Carlos | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 14.8% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Aular Orluis | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 24.2% | 101.00 |
| 23 | Tronchon Bastien | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 7.9% | 33.3% | 51.00 |
| 24 | Mas Enric | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 24.0% | 501.00 |
| 25 | Vermaerke Kevin | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 10.3% | 41.00 |
| 26 | Omrzel Jakob | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 17.5% | n/a |
| 27 | Mulubrhan Henok | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 10.3% | 51.00 |
| 28 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 9.3% | 201.00 |
| 29 | Bisiaux Léo | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 15.5% | 151.00 |
| 30 | Brenner Marco | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 14.0% | 126.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan Matthew | 41.5% | 41.5% | 40.4% | 66.2% | 84.1% | 5.50 |
| 2 | Meeus Jordi | 20.8% | 16.0% | 21.4% | 42.3% | 65.2% | 101.00 |
| 3 | van Aert Wout | 9.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 28.9% | 63.0% | 1.75 |
| 4 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 55.6% | 401.00 |
| 5 | Laurance Axel | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 11.4% | 55.3% | 26.00 |
| 6 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 7.0% | 54.1% | 34.00 |
| 7 | Coquard Bryan | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 8.6% | 66.2% | 34.00 |
| 8 | Debruyne Ramses | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 49.4% | 67.00 |
| 9 | Cort Magnus | 1.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 17.9% | 52.0% | 21.00 |
| 10 | Hofstetter Hugo | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 8.7% | 66.0% | 126.00 |
| 11 | Braet Vito | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 8.5% | 45.4% | 81.00 |
| 12 | Romele Alessandro | 1.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 13.0% | 54.4% | 21.00 |
| 13 | Dainese Alberto | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 6.3% | 36.5% | 401.00 |
| 14 | Aular Orluis | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 46.5% | 101.00 |
| 15 | Nys Thibau | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 8.3% | 44.2% | 19.00 |
| 16 | Albanese Vincenzo | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 9.3% | 64.0% | 41.00 |
| 17 | Tronchon Bastien | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 8.0% | 51.1% | 51.00 |
| 18 | Canal Carlos | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 3.2% | 21.5% | 251.00 |
| 19 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 6.0% | 23.2% | 81.00 |
| 20 | Camprubí Marcel | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 5.1% | 30.2% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Cobo Ivan | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 5.8% | 22.5% | 201.00 |
| 22 | Mulubrhan Henok | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 14.3% | 51.00 |
| 23 | Onley Oscar | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 13.8% | 101.00 |
| 24 | Govekar Matevz | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 4.8% | 19.1% | 501.00 |
| 25 | Skjelmose Mattias | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 9.5% | 251.00 |
| 26 | Macias Cesar | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 43.3% | n/a |
| 27 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 7.2% | 81.00 |
| 28 | Brenner Marco | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 22.2% | 126.00 |
| 29 | Covi Alessandro | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 16.9% | 126.00 |
| 30 | Vader Milan | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 23.6% | 501.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | van Aert Wout | 7.4% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 16.3% | 44.5% | 1.75 |
| 2 | Debruyne Ramses | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 10.0% | 54.7% | 67.00 |
| 3 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 9.5% | 47.6% | 81.00 |
| 4 | Bisiaux Léo | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 38.4% | 151.00 |
| 5 | Buitrago Santiago | 3.8% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 28.7% | 201.00 |
| 6 | Brenner Marco | 3.0% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 15.8% | 46.9% | 126.00 |
| 7 | Vermaerke Kevin | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 40.9% | 41.00 |
| 8 | Skjelmose Mattias | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 7.9% | 28.2% | 251.00 |
| 9 | Laurance Axel | 2.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 9.9% | 36.4% | 26.00 |
| 10 | Widar Jarno | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 8.1% | 47.1% | 81.00 |
| 11 | Romeo Ivan | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 67.00 |
| 12 | Castrillo Pablo | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 401.00 |
| 13 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 6.7% | 39.3% | 34.00 |
| 14 | Almeida Joao | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 7.4% | 13.7% | 401.00 |
| 15 | Canal Carlos | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 8.5% | 251.00 |
| 16 | Mulubrhan Henok | 1.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 15.1% | 51.00 |
| 17 | Berrade Urko | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 21.6% | 201.00 |
| 18 | Nys Thibau | 1.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 8.0% | 22.4% | 19.00 |
| 19 | Camprubí Marcel | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 6.0% | 31.1% | 67.00 |
| 20 | Paret-Peintre Valentin | 1.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 14.9% | 67.00 |
| 21 | Martin Guillaume | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 22.9% | 401.00 |
| 22 | Covi Alessandro | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 10.6% | 126.00 |
| 23 | García Raúl | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 8.8% | 401.00 |
| 24 | Tronchon Bastien | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 25.5% | 51.00 |
| 25 | Landa Mikel | 0.8% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 5.6% | n/a |
| 26 | Romele Alessandro | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 6.6% | 29.7% | 21.00 |
| 27 | Marti Pau | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 19.3% | 601.00 |
| 28 | Vansevenant Mauri | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 11.4% | 501.00 |
| 29 | Svestad-Bårdseng Embret | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 10.5% | n/a |
| 30 | Steinhauser Georg | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 301.00 |
| # | Rider | Blend | Cascade | LambdaRank | Podium | Top 15 | Book odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan Matthew | 26.8% | 35.1% | 22.5% | 53.8% | 67.9% | 5.50 |
| 2 | van Aert Wout | 15.0% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 26.6% | 54.2% | 1.75 |
| 3 | Meeus Jordi | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 23.3% | 37.0% | 101.00 |
| 4 | Debruyne Ramses | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 48.8% | 67.00 |
| 5 | Miquel Delgado Pau | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 40.1% | 34.00 |
| 6 | Laurance Axel | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 11.2% | 41.8% | 26.00 |
| 7 | De Schuyteneer Steffen | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 25.8% | 401.00 |
| 8 | Onley Oscar | 2.5% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 34.4% | 101.00 |
| 9 | Cort Magnus | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 17.6% | 39.8% | 21.00 |
| 10 | Coquard Bryan | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 7.2% | 30.4% | 34.00 |
| 11 | Roglic Primoz | 2.0% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 26.5% | 201.00 |
| 12 | Nys Thibau | 1.8% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 13.9% | 35.5% | 19.00 |
| 13 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 16.5% | 81.00 |
| 14 | Brenner Marco | 1.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 10.2% | 38.9% | 126.00 |
| 15 | Romele Alessandro | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 12.2% | 34.3% | 21.00 |
| 16 | Carapaz Richard | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 27.8% | 26.00 |
| 17 | Bisiaux Léo | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 19.4% | 151.00 |
| 18 | Berthet Clément | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 21.9% | n/a |
| 19 | Skjelmose Mattias | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 18.7% | 251.00 |
| 20 | Hofstetter Hugo | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 9.2% | 37.5% | 126.00 |
| 21 | Canal Carlos | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 14.0% | 251.00 |
| 22 | Tronchon Bastien | 1.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 9.4% | 36.1% | 51.00 |
| 23 | Camprubí Marcel | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 32.5% | 67.00 |
| 24 | Braet Vito | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 26.2% | 81.00 |
| 25 | Vermaerke Kevin | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 11.2% | 41.00 |
| 26 | Albanese Vincenzo | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 11.7% | 51.8% | 41.00 |
| 27 | Fisher-Black Finn | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% | 19.1% | 81.00 |
| 28 | Buitrago Santiago | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 12.7% | 201.00 |
| 29 | Martin Guillaume | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 20.0% | 401.00 |
| 30 | Mas Enric | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 31.5% | 501.00 |
Angle
On a flat day the escape has to beat the fast men home, so the pool that can win from it is the field minus every pure sprinter and minus the top 10 on GC after stage 20. Pure sprinter is the model's own verdict, not a hand list: real speed on a flat-sprint anchor of this exact field, but collapsing to a fraction of it once the road turns selective — that collapse is what separates a Merlier from a Pedersen. Classified out: Aular Orluis, Braet Vito, Brennan Matthew, Coquard Bryan, Cort Magnus, Dainese Alberto, De Schuyteneer Steffen, Hofstetter Hugo, Macias Cesar, Meeus Jordi. The conditional column renormalizes the survivors' win probability under the 'Late move' read over this pool (P(win | the break wins); the pool holds 75% of the unconditional book). The model cannot see who actually gets up the road — read this as a fitness-for-the-day ranking, not break-formation odds.
| Rider | Team | Late move win p | P(win | break wins) | Book odds | Book devig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van Aert Wout | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 7.4% | 9.8% | 2 | 37.4% |
| Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 4.4% | 5.8% | 67 | 1.0% |
| Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 4.0% | 5.4% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Bisiaux Léo | Decathlon CMA CGM Team | 4.0% | 5.3% | 151 | 0.4% |
| Buitrago Santiago | Bahrain Victorious | 3.8% | 5.1% | 201 | 0.3% |
| Brenner Marco | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 3.0% | 4.0% | 126 | 0.5% |
| Vermaerke Kevin | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 2.6% | 3.4% | 41 | 1.6% |
| Skjelmose Mattias | Lidl-Trek | 2.6% | 3.4% | 251 | 0.3% |
| Laurance Axel | Netcompany INEOS | 2.1% | 2.7% | 26 | 2.5% |
| Widar Jarno | Lotto-Intermarché | 1.8% | 2.4% | 81 | 0.8% |
| Romeo Ivan | Movistar Team | 1.7% | 2.2% | 67 | 1.0% |
| Castrillo Pablo | Movistar Team | 1.7% | 2.2% | 401 | 0.2% |
| Miquel Delgado Pau | Bahrain Victorious | 1.5% | 2.0% | 34 | 1.9% |
| Almeida Joao | UAE Team Emirates-XRG | 1.5% | 1.9% | 401 | 0.2% |
Angle
Shortest book prices for the stage, with our blend win probability (and rank) under each scenario. 'free' = outside the excluded GC pool (top 10 on GC after stage 20), i.e. the type the peloton might let up the road.
| Rider | Book odds | Devig | Cobbled selection | Regroup gallop | Late move | GC status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| van Aert Wout | 1.75 | 37.4% | 12.5% (#2) | 9.7% (#3) | 7.4% (#1) | free |
| Brennan Matthew | 5.50 | 11.9% | 28.4% (#1) | 41.5% (#1) | 1.8% (#14) | free |
| Nys Thibau | 19.00 | 3.4% | 1.3% (#14) | 0.8% (#15) | 1.1% (#26) | free |
| Cort Magnus | 21.00 | 3.1% | 2.0% (#8) | 1.5% (#9) | 0.9% (#35) | free |
| Romele Alessandro | 21.00 | 3.1% | 1.3% (#13) | 1.1% (#12) | 0.8% (#39) | free |
| Laurance Axel | 26.00 | 2.5% | 2.9% (#5) | 2.2% (#5) | 2.1% (#9) | free |
| Carapaz Richard | 26.00 | 2.5% | 1.0% (#18) | 0.2% (#37) | 0.9% (#33) | GC #4 |
| Miquel Delgado Pau | 34.00 | 1.9% | 2.5% (#6) | 2.0% (#6) | 1.5% (#19) | free |
| Coquard Bryan | 34.00 | 1.9% | 1.5% (#10) | 2.0% (#7) | 0.3% (#66) | free |
| Albanese Vincenzo | 41.00 | 1.6% | 0.4% (#35) | 0.8% (#16) | 0.6% (#49) | free |
After the stage
| Pos | Rider | Team | Cobbled selection win p | Regroup gallop win p | Late move win p | Hindsight (post-hoc) win p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johannessen Tobias Halland | Uno-X Mobility | 1.6% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| 2 | Romele Alessandro | XDS Astana Team | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| 3 | Debruyne Ramses | Alpecin-Premier Tech | 2.2% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| 4 | Brennan Matthew | Team Visma | Lease a Bike | 28.4% | 41.5% | 1.8% | 26.8% |
| 5 | Tronchon Bastien | Groupama-FDJ United | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| 6 | Bilbao Pello | Bahrain Victorious | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 7 | Fisher-Black Finn | Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 8 | Laurance Axel | Netcompany INEOS Cycling Team | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| 9 | Martí Pau | NSN Cycling Team | – | – | – | – |
| 10 | Brenner Marco | Tudor Pro Cycling Team | 0.5% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Scenario | Blend win p | Book devig |
|---|---|---|
| Cobbled selection | 1.59% | 0.81% |
| Regroup gallop | 0.22% | 0.81% |
| Late move | 4.04% | 0.81% |
| Hindsight (post-hoc) | 1.79% | 0.81% |
Reflection
The circuit did what the read said it would, and the label still came back bunch. Tobias Halland Johannessen won in 2:54:08 from Alessandro Romele and Ramses Debruyne, with forty riders on his time, seventy-eight more at 1:49 and fourteen at 3:59. Forty is a gallop, so the oracle graded the day bunch. The key was res_7 .40 / bunch .35 / res_1 .25: covered, not exact, weight on true 0.35. The shadow agent had the same three items with bunch last and scored 0.25.
The composition read was right and the macro was about something else. The front fifteen came back sprint .20, rolling .267, mountain .267 and time trial .133, with a front-five classification median of 77th — not a sprinters' front. Matthew Brennan, who won four stages at this race, was fourth. Wout van Aert, the book's favourite at 1.75 for 37.4% devigged, was sixty-fifth. The men who could use the cobbled wall were the men at the front, exactly as the morning read argued; the bunch macro grades winner-group size, not winner type, and those two questions had different answers today.
The hedge paid off for a reason that did not apply. Bunch carried 0.35 rather than a minority weight largely because the last two Tour circuit finales at Montmartre recorded every finisher on the winner's time, which would have made bunch true by construction. Granada did not neutralise: the winner-group proportion was 0.282, not 1.000, and the road produced the split honestly. So the extra weight was right and the argument behind it was wrong, which is worth recording as plainly as a miss would have been. The transferable part is narrower than it looked: the freeze is a Tour practice, not a grand tour one.
The branch structure earned its keep even though the headline board did not. The late-move read had van Aert first, Debruyne second and Johannessen third — two of the actual podium in its top three — and priced the winner at 4.25% against a book that had him at 0.81%. The other two reads had Brennan first at 28.5% and 40.4%, and the hindsight run, given the day's real shape, still puts him first at 24.5%. The model cannot see that a rider who has won four sprints is the wrong rider for a finish reached over a cobbled ramp four times; the scenario fork is what carried that knowledge, and on this day it carried it well.
The race ends as it stood. Everyone in the classification fight finished in the 1:49 group, so Enric Mas wins the Vuelta from Primoz Roglic at 2:15 and Felix Gall at 2:44, with Richard Carapaz fourth, Sepp Kuss fifth and Oscar Onley sixth and in the young riders' jersey. Van Aert takes the points classification from Brennan and Santiago Buitrago the mountains. Across the campaign the day key was exact on 8 of 17 keyed stages and covered on 15, at a mean weight on the true item of 0.49, with three stages unkeyed because the daily cycle was missed.