Stage race · 2026

Tour de France 2026 settled

Twenty-one stages predicted the evening before and settled the evening after — the model's first full grand tour in public, benchmarked against the market throughout.

Dates 4 Jul 2026 – 26 Jul 2026 Status Complete Settled 21/21 Predicted 20

Stages

Jump to a stage

Green settled · yellow predicted · struck-through cancelled · plain upcoming.

Race views

The full picture

GC tracker

Where the general classification stands, how the model's GC heads read it, and how that compares with the market's view.

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Stage-by-stage diary

The full diary: every stage card with its scenarios, prediction boards, and morning-after reflections in one place.

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Post-race review

The post-race accounting: what the model got right, what it missed, and what the campaign taught us.

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How the model works

The architecture behind these pages: pricing heads, the pricing layer, and the day-type retrieval channel.

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Stage log

Every stage, in order

StDateRouteDay keyStatusPage
1Sat 4 Jul——settledsettled, not predicted
2Sun 5 Jul——settledprediction
3Mon 6 Jul——settledprediction
4Tue 7 Jul——settledprediction
5Wed 8 Jul——settledprediction
6Thu 9 Jul——settledprediction
7Fri 10 Jul——settledprediction
8Sat 11 Jul——settledprediction
9Sun 12 Jul——settledprediction
10Tue 14 Jul——settledprediction
11Wed 15 Jul——settledprediction
12Thu 16 Jul——settledprediction
13Fri 17 Jul——settledprediction
14Sat 18 Jul——settledprediction
15Sun 19 Jul——settledprediction
16Tue 21 Jul——settledprediction
17Wed 22 Jul——settledprediction
18Thu 23 Jul——settledprediction
19Fri 24 Jul——settledprediction
20Sat 25 Jul——settledprediction
21Sun 26 Jul——settledprediction

The day key is the morning read of how the stage would unfold — the retrieval channel's menu item and weight, frozen before the start.